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The nexus between geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil markets: An entropy-based wavelet analysis

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  • Uddin, Gazi Salah
  • Bekiros, Stelios
  • Ahmed, Ali

Abstract

The global financial crisis and the subsequent geopolitical turbulence in energy markets have brought increased attention to the proper statistical modeling especially of the crude oil markets. In particular, we utilize a time–frequency decomposition approach based on wavelet analysis to explore the inherent dynamics and the casual interrelationships between various types of geopolitical, economic and financial uncertainty indices and oil markets. Via the introduction of a mixed discrete-continuous multiresolution analysis, we employ the entropic criterion for the selection of the optimal decomposition level of a MODWT as well as the continuous-time coherency and phase measures for the detection of business cycle (a)synchronization. Overall, a strong heterogeneity in the revealed interrelationships is detected over time and across scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios & Ahmed, Ali, 2018. "The nexus between geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil markets: An entropy-based wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 30-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:495:y:2018:i:c:p:30-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.12.025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty measurement; Energy markets; Multiscale analysis; Phase difference; Entropy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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