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Market Power, Survival and Accuracy of Predictions in Financial Markets

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  • Patrick Leoni

Abstract

This paper aims to show that the market selection hypothesis in finance is not solely driven by the competitiveness of such markets, as was originally claimed by Alchian [1] and Friedman [4]. Within a standard intertemporal General Equilibrium framework, we allow for an agent to have enough influence on financial markets to strategically affect prices of assets traded. We then show that, as in Sandroni [15], the agent� long-run consumption will vanish if she makes less accurate predictions than the market, and maintain her market power otherwise. We conclude that the Darwinian justification to this market selection is not the only explanation for the eventual domination of agents making the most accurate predictions. Rather, we claim that the origin of market selection, and in turn of the common prior assumption in asset pricing, is associated with the ability to foresee accurately market uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Leoni, "undated". "Market Power, Survival and Accuracy of Predictions in Financial Markets," IEW - Working Papers 216, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fehr, Ernst & Fischbacher, Urs & Kosfeld, Michael, 2005. "Neuroeconomic Foundations of Trust and Social Preferences," IZA Discussion Papers 1641, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Tania Singer & Ernst Fehr, 2005. "The Neuroeconomics of Mind Reading and Empathy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 340-345, May.
    3. Leoni, Patrick L., 2013. "Survival in Cournot games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 429-434.
    4. Armin Falk & Ernst Fehr & Christian Zehnder, "undated". "The Behavioral Effects of Minimum Wages," IEW - Working Papers 247, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Filippo Massari, 2021. "Price probabilities: a class of Bayesian and non-Bayesian prediction rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(1), pages 133-166, July.
    6. Patrick Leoni, 2012. "Rational expectations and monopolistic trades," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 107(2), pages 129-140, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market imperfection; asset pricing; learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection

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