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Der ZEW-ZEPHYR M&A-Index Deutschland: Determinanten und Prognose

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  • Nikogosian, Vigen

Abstract

Bisher berechneten das Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) und das Bureau van Dijk (BvD) den ZEW-ZEPHYR M&A-Index, der die Entwicklung weltweit abgeschlossener Fusionen und Übernahmen seit Beginn des Jahres 2000 abbildet. Der bestehende ZEW-Zephyr M&A-Index stellt ein wichtiges Barometer für die weltweite Fusions- und Akquisitionstätigkeit dar. Allerdings weicht die Entwicklung der deutschen M&A-Aktivitäten von der Entwicklung der weltweiten Aktivitäten ab. Daher wurde ein spezifisch auf M&A Transaktionen mit Zielunternehmen in Deutschland zugeschnittener M&A-Index konstruiert und eine Prognose über die zukünftige Entwicklung erstellt. Dieser Index wird, im Gegensatz zum weltweiten ZEW-ZEPHYR M&A-Index (Grimpe, 2007), anhand der gesamten Anzahl der M&A-Abschlüsse berechnet (unabhängig davon, ob das Transaktionsvolumen bekannt ist oder nicht). Im Vordergrund der veränderten Datenaufbereitung stehen insbesondere die Vermeidung von Selektionsverzerrungen aufgrund der Datenverfügbarkeit und die Erhöhung der Robustheit der Prognose. Die Erstellung dieser Prognose hat zum Ziel über die mögliche zukünftige Entwicklung der M&A-Aktivitäten in Deutschland durch kontinuierliche Berichterstattung in den Medien die interessierte Öffentlichkeit zu informieren. Um die Prognose auf Grundlage makroökonomischer Rahmenbedingungen zu ermöglichen, wurden Determinanten untersucht, die als 'Vorläufer' für die zeitliche Entwicklung von M&A-Aktivitäten geeignet sind. Hierzu wurden zunächst die kausalen Zusammenhänge theoretisch abgeleitet und anschließend quantitativ untersucht. Diese Analyse ermöglicht einerseits die nähere Betrachtung der kontemporären und der zeitverzögerten Effekte der treibenden Faktoren und andererseits die Berechnung der Prognose für die Entwicklung des Indexes in den folgenden 12 Monaten. Die Determinanten, die in die Untersuchung einfließen, sind der OECD Frühindikator (Composite Leading Indicator,CLI) für die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland, die langfristigen Zinsen sowie der Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX). Zudem wird die Anzahl der in der Öffentlichkeit kursierenden Gerüchte über anstehende Übernahmen und Fusionen, die in der ZEPHYR- Datenbank von Bureau van Dijk erfasst werden, herangezogen. Anschließend erfolgt die Erstellung der Prognose auf der Grundlage der Ergebnisse der vorhergehenden quantitativen Analyse. Dabei wird der Versuch unternommen vom Ausgangszeitpunkt, an dem die aktuellsten Daten vorliegen, die Entwicklung der M&A-Aktivität auf Monatsbasis dynamisch zu schätzen.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikogosian, Vigen, 2012. "Der ZEW-ZEPHYR M&A-Index Deutschland: Determinanten und Prognose," ZEW Dokumentationen 12-06, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdok:1206
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