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Surprises in scheduled releases: why do they move the bond market?

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  • Hess, Dieter E.

Abstract

It is well known that information arrival has an impact on prices volatility, and trading volume in financial markets (see e.g., Goodhart and O?Hara 1997). Scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as monthly employment figures, consumer prices, or building permits, stand out from the steady flow of information.1 Several studies (e.g. Fleming and Remolona 1997) show that these releases have a very distinct impact on prices. While most of these studies try to find out which releases are significant, considerably less effort has been devoted to the question what makes some releases so important in contrast to others that seem to attract no attention. Papers addressing this question emphasize the content of releases. For example, Edison (1996) discriminates between news related to unexpected inflation and those related to unexpected changes in economic activity. Investigating intraday T-bond futures price responses to surprises in scheduled macroeconomic releases, this paper presents evidence that the type of information is relevant. More specifically, the results suggest that the sequence of releases within a given content category helps to explain their relative importance. In other words, if market participants have already observed some figures on which they can base their assessment of a particular aspect of the economy, then the additional information of another related report should be small, and thus, its impact on prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Dieter E., 2000. "Surprises in scheduled releases: why do they move the bond market?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-61, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5344
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521471626, September.
    2. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 31-50.
    3. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
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    7. Edison, Hali J, 1997. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 87-100, April.
    8. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    9. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    10. Hemler, Michael L, 1990. "The Quality Delivery Option in Treasury Bond Futures Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1565-1586, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hess, Dieter, 2001. "Surprises in U.S. macroeconomic releases: Determinants of their relative impact on T-Bond futures," CoFE Discussion Papers 01/01, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    2. Hess, Dieter E., 2003. "Determinants of the relative price impact of unanticipated information in US macroeconomic releases," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 46, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic news; scheduled announcements; public information; price formation; Treasury bonds; futures market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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