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Die Erwärmung bodennaher Luftschichten in Zentralasien

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  • Mossig, Ivo
  • Rybski, Diego

Abstract

Der Beitrag gliedert sich wie folgt: Zunächst wird die Arbeit von Giese/Moßig (2004) zum Klimawandel in Zentralasien aufgegriffen und die Ergebnisse herkömmlicher Verfahren zur Bestimmung der Temperaturentwicklung anhand der vorliegenden Zeitreihen kurz dargestellt (Kapitel 2). Im Anschluss daran wird als erstes Problem die Bestimmung geeigneter Anfangs- und Endzeitpunkte bei der Verwendung von regressionsanalytischen Verfahren aufgezeigt (Kapitel 3). In Kapitel 4 wird das Verfahren der Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) zunächst ausführlich erläutert und die inhaltliche Aussagekraft der Ergebnisse am Beispiel der Station Karakol dargelegt. Diesbezüglich werden insbesondere die Auswirkungen auftretender Langzeitkorrelationen bei der Analyse von Zeitreihen erörtert. Darauf aufbauend wird eine systematische Anwendung des Verfahrens vorgenommen, um Aussagen über die Stärke erkannter Trends treffen zu können (Kapitel 5). Die Ausführungen schließen in Kapitel 6 mit einer kritischen Zusammenfassung sowie einem Ausblick auf offene Forschungsfragen.

Suggested Citation

  • Mossig, Ivo & Rybski, Diego, 2005. "Die Erwärmung bodennaher Luftschichten in Zentralasien," Discussion Papers 26, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeudps:26
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/21921/1/DiscPap26.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kramb, Marc Christopher, 2001. "Die Entscheidungen des ’Dispute Settlement’-Verfahrens der WTO im Hormonstreit zwischen der EU und den USA - Implikationen für den zukünftigen Umgang mit dem SPS-Abkommen," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 50(03), pages 1-5.
    3. Bohnet, Armin & Schratzenstaller, Margit, 2001. "Der Einfluss der Globalisierung auf staatliche Handlungsspielräume und die Zielverwirklichungsmöglichkeiten gesellschaftlicher Gruppen," Discussion Papers 2, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    4. Rubiolo, Mónica, 2002. "EU and Latin America: Biregionalism in a globalizing world?," Discussion Papers 7, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
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