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Money rules for the eurozone candidate countries

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  • Orlowski, Lucjan T.

Abstract

This study proposes the adoption of money growth rules as indicator variables of monetary policies by the countries converging to a common currency system, in particular, by the eurozone candidate countries. The analytical framework assumes an inflation target as the ultimate policy goal. The converging countries act in essence as “takers” of the inflation target, which, in this case, is the eurozone’s inflation forecast. The study advances a forwardlooking money growth model that might be applied to aid monetary convergence to the eurozone. However, feasibility of adopting money growth rules depends on stable relationships between money and target variables, which are low inflation and stable exchange rate. Long-run interactions between these variables are examined for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic by employing a Johansen cointegration test, along with short-run effects assessed with a vector error correction procedure.

Suggested Citation

  • Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for the eurozone candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b052004
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    Cited by:

    1. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1061-1081.
    2. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2007. "Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effects," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 75-94, April.
    3. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    5. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    6. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0294, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "Modelling anti-inflationary monetary targeting: with an application to Romania," Working Paper Series 1186, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    common currency system; eurozone; monetary convergence; money growth rules; inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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