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Bayesian Persuasion By Stress Test Disclosure

Author

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  • Gick, Wolfgang
  • Pausch, Thilo

Abstract

This paper argues that stress tests encompassing the entire banking sector (macro stress tests) can be designed to improve welfare. We develop a multi-receiver framework of Bayesian persuasion to show that a banking supervisor can create value when he commits to disclose the stress-testing methodology (signal-generating process) together with the stress test result (signal). By optimally choosing the two signals, supervisors can deliver superior information that will deliver a higher expected utility to prudent investors when acting accordingly. The paper uses an equilibrium construction with a continuum of receivers. We find that banking supervisors create welfare as optimal disclosure reduces uncertainty and leads to better risk-adjusted behavior on the investors' side and to less financial market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Gick, Wolfgang & Pausch, Thilo, 2013. "Bayesian Persuasion By Stress Test Disclosure," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79913, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79913
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/79913/1/VfS_2013_pid_599.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2004. "Transparency of Information and Coordination in Economies with Investment Complementarities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 91-98, May.
    2. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    3. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2014. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 3-15.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2001. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 287-327, April.
    5. Crawford, Vincent P & Sobel, Joel, 1982. "Strategic Information Transmission," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1431-1451, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goldstein, Itay & Leitner, Yaron, 2018. "Stress tests and information disclosure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 34-69.
    2. Dmitry Orlov & Pavel Zryumov & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2023. "The Design of Macroprudential Stress Tests," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(11), pages 4460-4501.
    3. Itay Goldstein & Yaron Leitner, 2015. "Stress tests and information disclosure," Working Papers 15-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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