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The Dark Side of Fiscal Stimulus

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  • Trimborn, Timo
  • Strulik, Holger

Abstract

The output multiplier turns negative before a deficit spending program expires. We show the generality of this unpleasant finding for the standard real business cycle model. We then calibrate an extended model for the US and demonstrate how fiscal stimulus slows down economic recovery from recession in the medium-run. We discuss the slowdown from recovery w.r.t. alternative assumptions about the size and persistence of the initial shock (severity of the recession), the assumed power of the impact multiplier, and the scale and duration of the stimulus program. We also show that results are quantitatively very similar independent from whether a recession was caused by an efficiency wedge (input-financing frictions) or a labor wedge (labor market frictions). Capital stock and output are always below their laissez-faire level of recovery when fiscal stimulus expires.

Suggested Citation

  • Trimborn, Timo & Strulik, Holger, 2011. "The Dark Side of Fiscal Stimulus," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48725, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:48725
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    Cited by:

    1. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2011. "The Dark Side of Fiscal Stimulus," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-466, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    2. Landais, Bernard, 2011. "Conduite et efficacité de la politique économique : les leçons de la crise [Management and Efficiency of the Economic Policies : The Crisis' Lessons"]," MPRA Paper 31223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gábor P. Kiss, 2020. "Aggregate Fiscal Stabilisation Policy: Panacea or Scapegoat?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 55-87.
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    5. Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Drygalla, Andrej & Giesen, Sebastian & Hennecke, Peter & Kiesel, Konstantin & Loose, Brigitte & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Zeddies, Götz, 2015. "Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der Konjunktur stützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009. Forschungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," IWH Online 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal stimulus; government spending; output multiplier; economic recovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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