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The Mexican drug war: Elections and homicides

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  • García-Ramos, Aixa

Abstract

Mexico has experienced a dramatic increase in violence during the last decade. This increase has been associated with turf wars among Drug Trafficking Organisations (DTOs) for the control of strategic territories. This paper examines whether these territorial disputes are higher during the lame duck period, when incumbent DTOs might be relatively weaker. Using homicides as a proxy for turf wars, my results show support for this hypothesis. The increase in homicides is concentrated on municipalities in which the PRI wins the election. In contrast, those in which the PAN wins experience a decrease.

Suggested Citation

  • García-Ramos, Aixa, 2022. "The Mexican drug war: Elections and homicides," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-92-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:upadvr:v9222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2020. "Simple Local Polynomial Density Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1449-1455, July.
    2. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Organised crime; violence; elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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