IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ubwwpe/20042.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Währungspolitik im Dienste von Entwicklung: Immer noch ein Forschungsprogramm!

Author

Listed:
  • Sell, Friedrich L.

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag formulieren wir zunächst einige Hypothesen über die möglichen Beiträge der Währungspolitik zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung vor dem Hintergrund des berühmten Trilemmas, das prinzipiell für jede Währungsordnung gelöst werden muss. Anschließend lassen wir in einem Überblick die Erfahrungen Revue passieren, welche von den Entwicklungsländern in den vergangenen 30 Jahren mit unterschiedlichen Wechselkursregimes gesammelt wurden. Dabei stellt sich heraus, dass es neben dem von Mundell (1968) formulierten "klassischen" Trilemma für die Währungsordnung ein weiteres gibt, welches sich auf die Gestaltung bzw. Kontrolle der internen Finanzmärkte bezieht und gerade von Schwellenländern beachtet werden muss. Die Alternativen "flexible" versus "feste" Paritäten können sinnvollerweise nur in Verbindung mit einem bestimmten Entwicklungsstand der internen Finanzmärkte und der Entscheidung für einen der alternativen Kontrollmechanismen gewählt werden. Zueinander passende Lösungen beider Trilemmas lassen dann auch positive Entwicklungsbeiträge erwarten und erlauben es sogar, Empfehlungen für Chinas aktuelle Wechselkurspolitik abzuleiten.

Suggested Citation

  • Sell, Friedrich L., 2004. "Währungspolitik im Dienste von Entwicklung: Immer noch ein Forschungsprogramm!," Working Papers in Economics 2004,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/23027/1/2004-2Sell.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George Kopits, 2002. "Central European EU Accession and Latin American Integration: Mutual Lessons in Macro-Economic Policy Design," Working Papers 75, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. Scrimgeour, Dean, 2002. "Exchange rate volatility and currency union: New Zealand evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 739-749, November.
    3. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 417-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carlos Arteta & Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More than It Hurts?," NBER Working Papers 8414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sell, Friedrich L., 2003. "Allianzen zur Wiederherstellung internationaler Zahlungsfähigkeit: Ein Modell für Argentinien?," Working Papers in Economics 2003,1, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    8. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Which provides more fiscal discipline?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 399-436, April.
    9. Kopits, George, 2002. "Central European EU accession and Latin American integration: Mutual lessons in macroeconomic policy design," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 253-277, December.
    10. Berg, Andrew & Borensztein, Eduardo & Mauro, Paolo, 2002. "An evaluation of monetary regime options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, December.
    11. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "How Risky is Financial Liberalization in the Developing Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Buch, Claudia M., 1999. "Chilean-type capital controls: A building block of the new international financial architecture?," Kiel Discussion Papers 350, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2002. "Monetary integration in the Southern Cone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 323-349, December.
    14. Robert Mundell, 2000. "Currency Areas, Exchange Rate Systems and International Monetary Reform," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 3, pages 217-256, November.
    15. Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Holden, Ken, 2002. "The crisis of the CFA Franc zone: the case of Cote d'Ivoire," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 531-564, August.
    16. Wagner, Helmut, 2000. "Which exchange rate regimes in an era of high capital mobility?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 191-203, December.
    17. Alexander, Volbert & von Furstenberg, George M., 2000. "Monetary unions--a superior alternative to full dollarization in the long run," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 205-225, December.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian, 2002. "The great exchange rate debate after Argentina," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 237-252, December.
    19. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2002. "Dollarization: Analytical Issues," NBER Working Papers 8838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Tsang, Shu-ki & Ma, Yue, 2002. "Currency substitution and speculative attacks on a currency board system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-78, February.
    21. Sebastian Edwards & I. Igal Magendzo, 2003. "Dollarization and economic performance: What do we really know?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 351-363.
    22. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/622 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/622 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Carrera, Jorge Eduardo, 2004. "Hard peg and monetary unions.Main lessons from the Argentine experience," MPRA Paper 7843, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    25. Hochreiter, Eduard & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Winckler, Georg, 2002. "Monetary union: European lessons, Latin American prospects," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 297-321, December.
    26. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    27. Eduard Hochreiter & Anton Korinek & Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "The potential consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes: A study of three candidate regions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 327-349.
    28. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P. & Pierdzioch, Christian, 1998. "Taxing short-term capital flows - An option for transition economies?," Kiel Discussion Papers 321, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    29. Stanley Fischer, 2003. "Globalization and Its Challenges," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 1-30, May.
    30. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
    31. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1982. "A Comparison of Exchange Rate Regimes in the Presence of Imperfect Capital Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(2), pages 365-388, June.
    32. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    33. Martin S. Feldstein, 2003. "Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies.An Overview of Prevention and Management," NBER Chapters, in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 1-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Craine, Roger, 2002. "Exchange rate regime credibility, the agency cost of capital and devaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1431-1456, August.
    35. Friedrich L. Sell, 1996. "On the theoretical determination of optimal currency areas in the framework of club theory," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 126-143, Autumn.
    36. Hochreiter, Eduard & Siklos, Pierre L., 2002. "Alternative exchange-rate regimes: The options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 195-211, December.
    37. Jonas, Jiri, 2002. "Argentina: The anatomy of a crisis," ZEI Working Papers B 12-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sell, Friedrich L. & Kermer, Silvio, 2006. "William Poole in der modernen Makroökonomik: Exegese des ursprünglichen Beitrags und seiner Fortentwicklungen für die offene Volkswirtschaft," Working Papers in Economics 2006,3, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    2. Sell, Friedrich L., 2007. "More about economic and non-economic determinants of (mutual) trust and trustworthiness," Working Papers in Economics 2007,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    3. Sell, Friedrich L., 2005. "Zins- und Geldmengensteuerung in der offenen Volkswirtschaft: Eine Referenz an William Poole (und zugleich eine Kritik an der "Neuen Keynesianischen Makroökonomik")," Working Papers in Economics 2005,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 225-247, December.
    2. Alexis Cruz-Rodriguez, 2013. "Choosing and Assessing Exchange Rate Regimes: a Survey of the Literature," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 28(2), pages 37-61, October.
    3. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    4. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2005. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 256-275, June.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:126:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2012. "How strong is the case for dollarization in Central America? An empirical analysis of business cycles, credit market imperfections and the exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 147-166, April.
    7. León Padilla & Ángel Rodriguez García-Brazales, 2021. "Can South America form an optimal monetary area? A structural vector autoregression analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 309-329, May.
    8. Horvath, Julius, 2003. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1235-1246, May.
    11. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    12. A. G. Malliaris, 2005. "Global monetary instability: The role of the IMF, the EU and NAFTA," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 20, pages 323-343, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    14. von Furstenberg, George M., 2006. "Mexico versus Canada: Stability benefits from making common currency with USD?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-78, March.
    15. Simon Broome, 2005. "Limited Reserves and the Optimal Width of an Exchange Rate Target Zone," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 263-281, July.
    16. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    17. B. Gabriela Mundaca & Jon Strand, 2005. "A risk allocation approach to optimal exchange rate policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 398-421, July.
    18. Hochreiter, Eduard & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Winckler, Georg, 2002. "Monetary union: European lessons, Latin American prospects," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 297-321, December.
    19. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Padhan, Hemachandra & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Understanding the time-frequency dynamics of money demand, oil prices and macroeconomic variables: The case of India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Alain Raybaut & Dominique Torre, 2004. "Unions monétaires, caisses d'émission et dollarisation : les fondements analytiques des systèmes de change « ultra-fixes »," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 75(2), pages 37-54.
    21. Lilia Cavallari & Giancarlo Corsetti, 1997. "Arbitrage mechanism leading to currency crises: a theoretical perspective," Working Papers in Public Economics 28, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Währungsordnung; Entwicklung; Tinbergen-Problem; Finanzmarktkrisen; Exchange Rate System; Economic Development; Tinbergen Problem; Financial Crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivbwmde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.