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Konsequenzen des bipolaren Weltwährungssystems für den Rest der Welt

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  • Luchtmeier, Hendrik

Abstract

Durch die fortschreitende Entwicklung internationaler Finanzmärkte hat eine Politik der unilateralen Wechselkursfixierung gegenüber dem US-Dollar oder dem Euro an Glaubwürdigkeit verloren. Den Ländern im Rest der Welt bieten sich heute drei Optionen zur Senkung ihres Wechselkursrisikos: Erstens die weitgehende Flexibilisierung des Wechselkurses, wodurch ein Stabilitätsimport unmöglich wird, zweitens die Einführung einer stabilen Fremdwährung (Dollarisierung, Euroisierung) und drittens die regionale monetäre Integration mit dem Ziel der Einführung einer Gemeinschaftswährung. Diese Arbeit untersucht die Bedingungen für die Vorteilhaftigkeit einer der drei Optionen. Es zeigt sich, dass die überwiegende Anzahl der Länder im "Rest der Welt" weder die Bedingungen für eine Flexibilisierung des Wechselkursesnoch die für die Einführung einer Fremdwährung erfüllt. Für diese Länder stellt, zumindest langfristig, eine regionale Gemeinschaftswährung die first best Lösung dar. Die Hauptvorteile liegen dabei auf der Finanzmarktseite. Gegenüber der Dollarisierung ist die regionale Gemeinschaftswährung mit einer höheren Finanzmarktstabilität verbunden, gegenüber der Flexibilisierungsstrategie ermöglicht eine regionale Gemeinschaftswährung eine höhere Liquidität auf regionalen Finanzmärkten. Beide Ergebnisse führen zu einer höheren Wechselkursstabilität.

Suggested Citation

  • Luchtmeier, Hendrik, 2000. "Konsequenzen des bipolaren Weltwährungssystems für den Rest der Welt," Discussion Papers 2000/6, Technische Universität Berlin, School of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tubsem:20006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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