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Ist Peak Oil Geschichte?

Author

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  • Baic, Boris
  • Clostermann, Jörg

Abstract

Am 3. Juli 2008 erreichte der Ölpreis (WTI) mit über 145 USDollar je Barrel seinen historischen Rekordwert. Dieses Ereignis galt als eine eindeutige Bestätigung der Befürworter der Peak- Oil Theorie, die seit Jahrzehnten vor den wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen einer unvermeidlichen Verknappung von Rohöl warnten. Deren pessimistischste Anhänger befürchteten eine unausweichlich starke Reduzierung der Erdölförderung, und in der Folge sogar einen Zusammenbruch der Wirtschaftssysteme, auf Grund stark steigender Preise. Die Plausibilität langfristig steigender Ölpreise ist nicht von der Hand zu weisen. Allerdings zeigen Überlegungen zum Öl-Angebot und -Nachfrage, dass mit einer plötzlichen Verknappung von Öl wohl auch auf längere Sicht nicht zu rechnen ist. Die Peak-Oil-Debatte hat zweifelsohne die unbestrittene Endlichkeit des Rohstoffs "Erdöl" in das Bewusstsein vieler Menschen gerückt. Aber neue Technologien wie Hydraulic Fracturing, die Ölsandgewinnung und verbesserte Fördermethoden sorgen dafür, dass der von den Peak-Oil Befürwortern postulierte "Tipping-Point" noch nicht erreicht wurde. Ein Versorgungsproblem ist unter Berücksichtigung der aktuellen Entwicklungen auf absehbare Zeit als nicht sehr wahrscheinlich einzustufen. Vielmehr zeigt sich, dass die größere wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderung der Zukunft sein wird, Öl als CO2-emittiertenden Energieträger zu substituieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Baic, Boris & Clostermann, Jörg, 2016. "Ist Peak Oil Geschichte?," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 39, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:thiwps:39
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/202590/1/thi-abwp-39.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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