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Estimating location values of agricultural land

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  • Helbing, Georg
  • Shen, Zhiwei
  • Odening, Martin
  • Ritter, Matthias

Abstract

"Bodenrichtwerte" reflect the average location value of land plots within a specific area. They constitute an important source of information that contributes to price transparency on land markets. In Germany, "Bodenrichtwerte" are provided by publicly appointed expert groups (Gutachterausschüsse). Using empirical data from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania between 2013 and 2015, this article examines the relation between 'Bodenrichtwerten' and statistically determined location values. It turns out that 'Bodenrichtwerte' tend to underestimate location values of arable land by 11.5 percent on average. This underestimation can be traced back to the pronounced increase of land prices in the observation period. As an alternative to the expert-based determination of location values, we suggest a nonparametric smoothing procedure that rests on the Propagation-Separation Approach. The application of this data-driven procedure achieves an accuracy comparable to that of official "Bodenrichtwerte" at the one-year ahead prediction of location values without the requirement of expert knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Helbing, Georg & Shen, Zhiwei & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2017. "Estimating location values of agricultural land," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-002, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2017-002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shen, Zhiwei, 2016. "Adaptive local parametric estimation of crop yields: implication for crop insurance ratemaking," 156th Seminar, October 4, 2016, Wageningen, The Netherlands 249984, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Kolbe, Jens & Schulz, Rainer & Wersing, Martin & Werwatz, Axel, 2014. "Identifying Berlin's land value map using adaptive weights smoothing," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-003, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Hennig, Solveigh & Breustedt, Gunnar & Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe, 2014. "Zum Einfluss mitgehandelter Zahlungsansprüche auf die Kauf- und Pachtpreise von Ackerland in Schleswig-Holstein," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(04), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Jens Kolbe & Rainer Schulz & Martin Wersing & Axel Werwatz, 2015. "Identifying Berlin’s land value map using adaptive weights smoothing," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 767-790, September.
    5. Hennig, Solveigh & Breustedt, Gunnar & Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe, 2014. "Zum Einfluss mitgehandelter Zahlungsansprüche auf die Kauf- und Pachtpreise von Ackerland in Schleswig-Holstein," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(4).
    6. J. Polzehl & V. G. Spokoiny, 2000. "Adaptive weights smoothing with applications to image restoration," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(2), pages 335-354.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ritter, Matthias & Hüttel, Silke & Odening, Martin & Seifert, Stefan, 2020. "Revisiting the relationship between land price and parcel size in agriculture," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Kolbe, Jens & Schulz, Rainer & Wersing, Martin & Werwatz, Axel, 2019. "Land value appraisal using statistical methods," FORLand Working Papers 07 (2019), Humboldt University Berlin, DFG Research Unit 2569 FORLand "Agricultural Land Markets – Efficiency and Regulation".
    3. Ritter, Matthias & Huttel, Silke & Odening, Martin & Seifert, Stefan, 2019. "Revisiting The Relationship Between Land Price And Parcel Size," 2019 Conference (63rd), February 12-15, 2019, Melbourne, Australia 285062, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES).
    4. Jens Kolbe & Rainer Schulz & Martin Wersing & Axel Werwatz, 2019. "Bodenwertermittlung mit statistischen Methoden [Land value appraisal using statistical methods]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 131-154, November.
    5. Myrna, Olena, 2023. "Competition in online land lease auctions in Ukraine: Reduced-form estimation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Xin, Liangjie & Li, Xiubin, 2019. "Rental rates of grain land for consolidated plots and their determinants in present-day China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 421-426.
    7. repec:ags:aaea22:335626 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    land value; adaptive weight smoothing; agricultural land markets; propagation-separation approach; PSA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • R39 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other

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