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VAT multipliers and pass-through dynamics

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  • Voigts, Simon

Abstract

To quantify fiscal multipliers in Eurozone countries, ECB, European Commission, and IMF draw heavily on large-scale DSGE models. In these models, the value added tax (VAT) is represented by a consumption tax, implying that changes in the tax liability directly translate into changes in consumer prices. This is inconsistent with empirical evidence suggesting that VAT pass-through in Europe is only gradual. To study the implications of this shortcoming for VAT multipliers, I derive a DSGE model featuring both a consumption tax and a VAT with pass-through dynamics consistent with empirical evidence. Short-run multipliers from the consumption tax are dramatically larger than those from the VAT, which suggests systematic overestimation in institutional research.

Suggested Citation

  • Voigts, Simon, 2016. "VAT multipliers and pass-through dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-026, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2016-026
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; value added tax; tax pass-through; DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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