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Are US inflation expectations re-anchored?

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  • Nautz, Dieter
  • Strohsal, Till

Abstract

Anchored inflation expectations are of key importance for monetary policy. If long-terminflation expectations arewell-anchored, they should be unaffected by short-term economic news. This letter introduces newsregressions with multiple endogenous breaks to investigate the de- and re-anchoring of US inflation expectations. We confirm earlier evidence on the de-anchoring of expectations driven by the outbreak of the crisis. Our results indicate that expectations have not been re-anchored ever since.

Suggested Citation

  • Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till, 2014. "Are US inflation expectations re-anchored?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-060, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2014-060
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anchoring of Inflation Expectations; Break-Even Inflation Rates; News-Regressions; Multiple Structural Break Tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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