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Correlation vs. causality in stock market comovement

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  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

This paper seeks to disentangle the sources of correlations between high-, mid- and low-cap stock indexes from the German prime standard. In principle, such comovement can arise from direct spillover between the variables or due to common factors. By standard means, these different components are obviously not identifiable. As a solution, the underlying study proposes specifying ARCH-type models for both the idiosyncratic innovations and a common factor, so that the model structure can be identified through heteroscedasticity. The seemingly surprising result that smaller caps have higher influence than larger ones is explained by asymmetric information processing in financial markets. Broad macroeconomic information is shown to enter the common factor rather than the segment-specific shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Weber, Enzo, 2007. "Correlation vs. causality in stock market comovement," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-064, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2007-064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Enzo Weber, 2010. "Volatility and causality in Asia Pacific financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1269-1292.
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    10. Weber, Enzo, 2007. "Volatility and causality in Asia Pacific financial markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-004, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weber, Enzo, 2009. "Financial Contagion, Vulnerability and Information Flow: Empirical Identification," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 431, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Identification; Spillover; Common Factor; Structural EGARCH; DAX;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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