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Are Eastern European countries catching up? Time series evidence for Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

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  • Brüggemann, Ralf
  • Trenkler, Carsten

Abstract

The catching up process in Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is analyzed by investigating the integration properties of log-differences in per-capita GDP versus the EU15 and a Mediterranean country group. We account for structural changes by using unit root tests that allow for two endogenous breaks in the level and the trend. We find that Czech Republic and Hungary are stochastically converging towards the Mediterranean group, while only Czech Republic is stochastically converging towards EU15. Remaining per capita GDP differences are only reduced by deterministic trends. Extrapolating these trends we find that catching up will take about 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Brüggemann, Ralf & Trenkler, Carsten, 2005. "Are Eastern European countries catching up? Time series evidence for Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-014, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2005-014
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Aumann & Rolf Scheufele, 2010. "Is East Germany catching up? A time series perspective," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 177-192.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Income and CO2 emissions: Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 413-423, February.
    3. Roxana Badircea & Alina Manta & Alia Duta, 2016. "The Analysis of the Real Convergence of the Countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(18), pages 45-50, December.
    4. Soyyiğit Semanur & Michalski Bartosz, 2022. "The Economic Complexity of the Visegrád Countries and the Role of Trade with Germany," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 9(56), pages 219-236, January.
    5. Amat Adarov & Mario Holzner & Luka Sikic, 2016. "Backwardness, Industrialisation and Economic Development in Europe," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 123, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-018 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Klinke, Sigbert & Ziegenhagen, Uwe & Guri, Yuval, 2005. "Yxilon: A modular open-source statistical programming language," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-018, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2010. "Do stock returns in India exhibit a mean reverting tendency? Evidence from multiple structural breaks test," MPRA Paper 46502, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic convergence; Catching Up; Unit root tests; EU accession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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