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On the ordering of probability forecasts

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  • Krämer, Walter

Abstract

The paper explores the relationship between various orderings among probability forecasts that have been suggested in the literature. It is shown that well calibrated forecasters are in general not comparable according to the domination ordering suggested by Vardeman and Meeden (1983), that the orderings based on ROC-curves and Gini-curves are identical, and that the domination ordering in conjunction with semicalibration implies the rest.

Suggested Citation

  • Krämer, Walter, 2002. "On the ordering of probability forecasts," Technical Reports 2002,50, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200250
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2001. "Prototype risk rating system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-95, January.
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    1. Walter Krämer & André Güttler, 2008. "On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 343-356, March.
    2. Krämer, Walter & Güttler, André, 2003. "Comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry: The case of Moody's vs. S&P," Technical Reports 2003,23, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.

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