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Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Pre-empt Sunspot Expectations

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  • Weder, Mark

Abstract

This paper derives new results on the effects of employing Taylor rules in economies that are subject to real market imperfections such as production externalities. Taylor rules that aggressively respond to output can eliminate sunspot equilibria that arise from the increasing returns. The paper also finds that rules which should be chosen (avoided) in perfect market environments often yield (ensure) multiple (unique) rational expectations solutions in alternative settings. Therefore, exact knowledge on the degree of market imperfection may be pivotal for robust policy advice.

Suggested Citation

  • Weder, Mark, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Pre-empt Sunspot Expectations," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,49, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200349
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    1. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Tracing externalities as sources of indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 851-867, May.
    2. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
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    9. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 311-346, Springer.
    10. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June.
    11. Weder, Mark, 1998. "Fickle Consumers, Durable Goods, and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-57, July.
    12. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
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    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-027 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2004:i:11:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mark Weder, 2006. "Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stabilization," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 72(2), pages 195-204.
    4. Mark Weder, 2008. "Sticky Prices and Indeterminacy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1073-1082, August.
    5. Schabert, Andreas & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic stability revisited," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-027, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. Donald A. R., George & Les, Oxley, 2013. "Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-45, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Chen, Shu-Hua, 2015. "Macroeconomic (In)Stability Of Interest Rate Rules In A Model With Banking System And Reserve Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(7), pages 1476-1508, October.
    8. Mark Weder, 2008. "Sticky Prices and Indeterminacy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1073-1082, August.
    9. Mark Weder, 2008. "Money growth rules as stabilization policies in open economies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 525-537.
    10. Loisel, O., 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers 161, Banque de France.

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