IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/edn/esedps/217.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique

Author

Abstract

This paper analyses RE macromodels from the methodological perspective. It proposes a particular property, robustness, which should be considered a necessary feature of scientifically valid models in economics, but which is absent from many RE macromodels. To restore this property many macroeconomists resort to detailed and implausible assumptions, which take their models a long way from simple Rational Expectations. The paper draws attention to the problems inherent in the technique of local linearisation and concludes by proposing the use of nonlinear models, analysed globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald A. R. George & Les Oxley, 2013. "Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 217, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:217
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.ed.ac.uk/papers/id217_esedps.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van de Klundert, Theo, 1991. "Reducing external debt in a world with imperfect asset and imperfect commodity substitution," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 17-40, April.
    2. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-1026, November.
    3. Montiel, Peter & Ul Haque, Nadeem, 1991. "Dynamic responses to policy and exogenous shocks in an empirical developing country model with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 201-218, April.
    4. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter, 2011. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521180184, September.
    5. Baumol, William J & Benhabib, Jess, 1989. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, Winter.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    7. Bankim Chadha, 1991. "Wages, Profitability, and Growth in a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 59-82, March.
    8. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
    9. Sussman, Oren, 1991. "Macroeconomic Effects of a Tax on Bond Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 352-366, August.
    10. Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Monetary Policy and International Competitiveness: The Problems of Adjustment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(0), pages 143-175, Supplemen.
    11. Weder, Mark, 2006. "Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Preempt Sunspot Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 655-677, April.
    12. Robert E. Lucas & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 3(Spr).
    13. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Sen, Partha, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, Capital Accumulation, and Debt in an Open Economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 1-24, January.
    14. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-687, August.
    15. Chiarella, Carl, 1986. "Perfect foresight models and the dynamic instability problem from a higher viewpoint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 283-292, October.
    16. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    17. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
    18. George, Donald A R, 1981. "Equilibrium and Catastrophes in Economics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 28(1), pages 43-61, February.
    19. repec:bla:econom:v:58:y:1991:i:230:p:233-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Nielsen, Soren Bo & Sorensen, Peter Birch, 1991. "Capital income taxation in a growing open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 179-197, January.
    21. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
    22. Chiarella, Carl, 1990. "Excessive exchange rate variability : A possible explanation using nonlinear economic dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 315-352, December.
    23. Chiarella, Carl, 1991. "The bifurcation of probability distributions in a non-linear rational expectations model of monetary economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-78, April.
    24. Donald A. R. George, 1988. "Mathematical Modelling for Economists," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-19238-0, October.
    25. Frank, Murray Z & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. "Chaotic Dynamics in Economic Time-Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 103-133.
    26. Buiter, Willem H, 1984. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models: A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 665-680, May.
    27. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Nguyen, Duc-Tho, 1980. "Perfect myopic foresight and the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a simple inflationary model : Some analytical and numerical results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 237-269.
    28. Desai, Meghnad, 1973. "Growth cycles and inflation in a model of the class struggle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(6), pages 527-545, December.
    29. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Competitive Equilibrium Cycles," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 75-96, Springer.
    30. repec:bla:scandj:v:84:y:1982:i:2:p:229-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-299, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2004. "Real-Financial Interaction: A Reconsideration of the Blanchard Model with a State-of-Market Dependent Reaction Coefficient," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Economic Complexity, pages 31-65, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Disequilibrium Growth Theory: Foundations, Synthesis, Perspectives," Working Paper Series 85, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Gomes, Orlando, 2008. "Too much of a good thing: Endogenous business cycles generated by bounded technological progress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 933-945, September.
    4. Philip L. Brock, 2009. "Collateral Constraints and Macroeconomic Adjustment in an Open Economy," Working Papers UWEC-2009-03, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    5. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    6. Schabert, Andreas & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2005. "Money Demand and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 4974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Francisco A. Gallego & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2004. "General Equilibrium Dynamics of External Shocks and Policy Changes in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 271, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Alexeeva, Tatyana A. & Kuznetsov, Nikolay V. & Mokaev, Timur N., 2021. "Study of irregular dynamics in an economic model: attractor localization and Lyapunov exponents," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Foroni, Ilaria & Gardini, Laura & Rosser, J.Barkley, 2003. "Adaptive and statistical expectations in a renewable resource market," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 541-567.
    10. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, January.
    11. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Imperfect Demand Expectations and Endogenous Business Cycles," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 11(1), pages 37-59, May.
    12. Francisco Gallego & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2005. "General Equilibrium Dynamics of Foreign Shocks ans Policy Changes in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.),General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 4, pages 113-162, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    14. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-027 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Goenka, Aditya & Poulsen, Odile, 2004. "Factor Intensity Reversal and Ergodic Chaos," Working Papers 04-13, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    16. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 1995. "Fiscal and monetary contraction in Chile : a rational-expectations approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1472, The World Bank.
    17. Chiarella, Carl, 1991. "The bifurcation of probability distributions in a non-linear rational expectations model of monetary economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-78, April.
    18. Cox, Grant M. & Harvie, Charles, 2010. "Resource price turbulence and macroeconomic adjustment for a resource exporter: A conceptual framework for policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 469-489, March.
    19. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, November.
    20. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "Developments in Nonlinear Economic Dynamics: Past, Present and Future," Working Paper Series 14, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    21. Chin-Chang Lai, 1997. "The Complex Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates with Countercyclical Balance of Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 393-401, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Research Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deediuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.