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Nonparametric estimation in null recurrent times series

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  • Karlsen, Hans Arnfinn
  • Tjostheim, Dag

Abstract

We develop a nonparametric estimation theory in a non-stationary environment, more precisely in the framework of null recurrent Markov chains. An essential tool is the split chain, which makes it possible to decompose the times series under consideration in independent and identical parts. A tail condition on the distribution of the recurrence time is introduced. This condition makes it possible to prove weak convergence results for series of functions of the process depending on a smoothing parameter. These limit results are subsequently used to obtain consistency and asymptotic normality for local density estimators and for estimators of the conditional mean and the conditional variance. In contra-distinction to the parametric case, the convergence rate is slower than in the stationary case, and it is directly linked to the tail behaviour of the recurrence time.

Suggested Citation

  • Karlsen, Hans Arnfinn & Tjostheim, Dag, 1998. "Nonparametric estimation in null recurrent times series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,50, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199850
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yakowitz, Sid, 1993. "Nearest neighbor regression estimation for null-recurrent Markov time series," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 311-318, November.
    2. Masry, Elias & Tjøstheim, Dag, 1997. "Additive Nonlinear ARX Time Series and Projection Estimates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 214-252, April.
    3. Masry, Elias & Tjøstheim, Dag, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation and Identification of Nonlinear ARCH Time Series Strong Convergence and Asymptotic Normality: Strong Convergence and Asymptotic Normality," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 258-289, February.
    4. P. M. Robinson, 1983. "Nonparametric Estimators For Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 185-207, May.
    5. Robinson, Peter M., 1997. "Large-sample inference for nonparametric regression with dependent errors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 302, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.

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