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Wie brauchbar sind Multiplikatorprognosen für die Geldmengensteuerung der Bundesbank?

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  • Nautz, Dieter

Abstract

Die Frage nach der Steuerbarkeit der Geldmenge wird in empirischen Arbeiten üblicherweise auf die Frage nach der Vorhersagbarkeit von Geldangebotsmultiplikatoren reduziert. In dieser Arbeit wird untersucht, wie sinnvoll diese Herangehensweise bei der empirischen Untersuchung des Geldangebotsprozesses in der Bundesrepublik ist. Im Rahmen einer Kointegrationsanalyse und mit Hilfe von Granger-Kausalitätstests wird gezeigt, daß keines der betrachteten Geldmengenaggregate über Veränderungen der Geldbasis gesteuert wird. Prognosen von Geldangebotsmultiplikatoren sind für die Geldmengensteuerung der Bundesbank daher bedeutungslos.

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  • Nautz, Dieter, 1997. "Wie brauchbar sind Multiplikatorprognosen für die Geldmengensteuerung der Bundesbank?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,40, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199740
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