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Implied Volatility Duration: A measure for the timing of uncertainty resolution

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  • Schlag, Christian
  • Thimme, Julian
  • Weber, Rüdiger

Abstract

We introduce Implied Volatility Duration (IVD) as a new measure for the timing of uncertainty resolution, with a high IVD corresponding to late resolution. Portfolio sorts on a large cross-section of stocks indicate that investors demand on average more than five percent return per year as a compensation for a late resolution of uncertainty. In a general equilibrium model, we show that 'late' stocks can only have higher expected returns than 'early' stocks, if the investor exhibits a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. Our empirical analysis thus provides a purely market-based assessment of the timing preferences of the marginal investor.

Suggested Citation

  • Schlag, Christian & Thimme, Julian & Weber, Rüdiger, 2020. "Implied Volatility Duration: A measure for the timing of uncertainty resolution," SAFE Working Paper Series 265, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:265
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2881993
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    3. Bali, Turan G. & Beckmeyer, Heiner & Moerke, Mathis & Weigert, Florian, 2021. "Option return predictability with machine learning and big data," CFR Working Papers 21-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Penman, Stephen & Zhu, Julie, 2022. "An accounting-based asset pricing model and a fundamental factor," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    preference for early resolution of uncertainty; implied volatility; cross-sectionof expected stock returns; asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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