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Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A global VAR approach

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Osowski, Thomas

Abstract

This paper identifies and measures fiscal spillovers in the EU countries empirically using a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model. Our aim is to look at the sign and the absolute values of fiscal spillovers in a country-wise perspective and at the time profile (impulse response) of the impacts of fiscal shocks. We find moderate spillover effects of fiscal policy shocks originating in Germany and France. However, there is significant variation regarding magnitude of the spillovers among destination countries and country clusters. Furthermore, we find some evidence that spillovers generated by German or French fiscal spillovers are stronger for EMU than non-EMU countries in Europe.

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  • Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A global VAR approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 661, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:661
    DOI: 10.4419/86788767
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    3. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina, 2018. "International spillovers in global asset markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 3-17.
    4. Hajek, Jan & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 91-105.
    5. Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/04, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Aleksandra Fedajev & Danijela Pantović & Isidora Milošević & Tamara Vesić & Aleksandra Jovanović & Magdalena Radulescu & Maria Cristina Stefan, 2023. "Evaluating the Outcomes of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the EU in Times of Crisis: A PLS-SEM Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Hory, Marie-Pierre, 2018. "Delayed mimicking: the timing of fiscal interactions in Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 97-118.
    8. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj & Gary Koop, 2019. "An empirical assessment of recent challenges in today's financial markets," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 1-4, February.
    9. Luis Ayala-Cañón & María Jesús Delgado-Rodríguez & Sonia De Lucas-Santos, 2022. "Synchronization and cyclicality of social spending in economic crises," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1153-1187, November.
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    11. Badarau, Cristina & Huart, Florence & Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2021. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of eurobonds," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
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    13. Alcidi, Cinzia & Gros, Daniel, 2017. "How to strengthen the European Semester?," CEPS Papers 13292, Centre for European Policy Studies.
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    15. P. Butzen & S. Cheliout & N. Cordemans & E. De Prest & W. Melyn & L. Van Meensel & S. Van Parys, 2017. "Towards a new policy mix in the euro area ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 63-91, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU versus Rest of Europe; fiscal policy coordination; fiscal spillovers; GVAR analysis; regional shocks; impulse response analysis; trade weights;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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