IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/284396.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Drought, livestock holding, and milk production: A difference-in-differences analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Abebe, Meseret B.
  • Alem, Yonas

Abstract

Climate change is making El Niños more frequent and intense. Therefore, understanding the effects of El-Niño-induced climatic events is essential to designing effective coping and adaptation strategies. We identify the impact of the 2015-16 El-Niño-induced large-scale drought on smallholder farmers' livestock holding and milk production using nationally representative data collected before and after the drought. We show that drought reduced milk production and livestock holding by 25.8% and 8.4%, respectively. Heterogenous impact analysis suggests that asset-rich households sold livestock and financed feed purchases, which insulated their milk production from the drought. In contrast, asset-poor households kept their livestock despite the severe drought and absorbed all the decline in milk production. Our findings have important implications for formulating safety net and adaptation programs targeting smallholder farmers and the livestock sector in a rapidly changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Abebe, Meseret B. & Alem, Yonas, 2024. "Drought, livestock holding, and milk production: A difference-in-differences analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1046, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:284396
    DOI: 10.4419/96973215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/284396/1/1882367723.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4419/96973215?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Farmer Adaptation to Extreme Heat," Discussion Papers dp18-02, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    2. Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998. "Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
    3. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-244, April.
    4. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    5. Dercon, Stefan, 2004. "Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 309-329, August.
    6. Manisha Shah & Bryce Millett Steinberg, 2017. "Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long-Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 527-561.
    7. Sarah A Janzen & Michael R Carter, 2019. "After the Drought: The Impact of Microinsurance on Consumption Smoothing and Asset Protection," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(3), pages 651-671.
    8. Travis J. Lybbert & Christopher B. Barrett & Solomon Desta & D. Layne Coppock, 2004. "Stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among a poor population," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 750-777, October.
    9. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    10. John Hoddinott, 2006. "Shocks and their consequences across and within households in Rural Zimbabwe," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 301-321.
    11. Takashi Yamano & Harold Alderman & Luc Christiaensen, 2005. "Child Growth, Shocks, and Food Aid in Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(2), pages 273-288.
    12. Dercon, Stefan & Hill, Ruth Vargas & Clarke, Daniel & Outes-Leon, Ingo & Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu, 2014. "Offering rainfall insurance to informal insurance groups: Evidence from a field experiment in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 132-143.
    13. Acosta, Alejandro & Nicolli, Francesco & Karfakis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Coping with climate shocks: The complex role of livestock portfolios," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    14. Nigel Key & Stacy Sneeringer, 2014. "Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1136-1156.
    15. Marc F. Bellemare & Christopher B. Barrett & David R. Just, 2013. "The Welfare Impacts of Commodity Price Volatility: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(4), pages 877-899.
    16. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott & Tassew Woldehanna, 2005. "Shocks and Consumption in 15 Ethiopian Villages, 1999--2004," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(4), pages 559-585, December.
    17. Yonas Alem & Mintewab Bezabih & Menale Kassie & Precious Zikhali, 2010. "Does fertilizer use respond to rainfall variability? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 165-175, March.
    18. Stefan Dercon, 2002. "Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 141-166, September.
    19. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
    20. Qasir Abbas & Jiqin Han & Adnan Adeel & Raza Ullah, 2019. "Dairy Production under Climatic Risks: Perception, Perceived Impacts and Adaptations in Punjab, Pakistan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-21, October.
    21. repec:ags:aaea22:335868 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate change and agriculture: farmer adaptation to extreme heat," IFS Working Papers W18/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    23. Carter, Michael R. & Lybbert, Travis J., 2012. "Consumption versus asset smoothing: testing the implications of poverty trap theory in Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 255-264.
    24. Catherine Porter, 2012. "Shocks, Consumption and Income Diversification in Rural Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 1209-1222, September.
    25. Ugo Pica-Ciamarra & Luca Tasciotti & Joachim Otte & Alberto Zezza, 2015. "Livestock in the Household Economy: Cross-Country Evidence from Microeconomic Data," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 33(1), pages 61-81, January.
    26. Udry, Christopher, 1995. "Risk and Saving in Northern Nigeria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1287-1300, December.
    27. Mahajan, Kanika, 2017. "Rainfall Shocks and the Gender Wage Gap: Evidence from Indian Agriculture," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 156-172.
    28. Douglas Scott, 2019. "Income Shocks and Poverty Traps: Asset Smoothing in Rural Ethiopia," Discussion Papers 2019-01, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    29. Bardhan, Pranab & Udry, Christopher, 1999. "Development Microeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773719.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abebe, Meseret B. & Alem, Yonas, 2023. "Drought, Livestock Holding, and Milk Production: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis," EfD Discussion Paper 23-12, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    2. Wondimagegn Tesfaye & Gebrelibanos Gebremariam, 2020. "Consumption smoothing and price enhancement motives for grain storage: empirical perspectives from rural Ethiopia," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Haider, Hamza, "undated". "Asset Management & Coping Strategies in Burkina Faso," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259956, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Renata Baborska & Emilio Hernandez & Emiliano Magrini & Cristian Morales-Opazo, 2020. "The impact of financial inclusion on rural food security experience: A perspective from low-and middle-income countries," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18.
    5. Berloffa, Gabriella & Modena, Francesca, 2013. "Income shocks, coping strategies, and consumption smoothing: An application to Indonesian data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 158-171.
    6. Javier E. Baez & Leonardo Lucchetti & Maria E. Genoni & Mateo Salazar, 2017. "Gone with the Storm: Rainfall Shocks and Household Wellbeing in Guatemala," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 1253-1271, August.
    7. Kayenat Kabir, 2023. "What Do We Know About Drought, Household Consumption and Seasonality: Evidence Review from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 303-317, November.
    8. Jonathan Colmer, 2021. "Rainfall Variability, Child Labor, and Human Capital Accumulation in Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 858-877, May.
    9. Clarke, Daniel J. & Hill, Ruth Vargas, 2013. "Cost-benefit analysis of the african risk capacity facility:," IFPRI discussion papers 1292, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Nancy McCarthy & Talip Kilic & Alejandro de la Fuente & Joshua M. Brubaker, 2018. "Shelter from the Storm? Household-Level Impacts of, and Responses to, the 2015 Floods in Malawi," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 237-258, October.
    11. Letta, Marco & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Tol, Richard S.J., 2018. "Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: Evidence from rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 13-32.
    12. Yonas Alem & Mathilde Maurel & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01955941, HAL.
    13. You, Jing, 2014. "Risk, under-investment in agricultural assets and dynamic asset poverty in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 27-45.
    14. Noy, Ilan & Karim, Azreen, 2013. "Poverty, inequality and natural disasters – A survey," Working Paper Series 18793, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    15. Thiede, Brian C., 2014. "Rainfall Shocks and Within-Community Wealth Inequality: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 181-193.
    16. Rentschler, Jun E., 2013. "Why resilience matters - the poverty impacts of disasters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6699, The World Bank.
    17. Hirvonen, Kalle & Sohnesen, Thomas Pave & Bundervoet, Tom, 2020. "Impact of Ethiopia’s 2015 drought on child undernutrition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    18. MAMOUDOU Ba & Mazhar Mughal, 2022. "Weather Shocks, Coping Strategies and Household Well-being: Evidence from Rural Mauritania," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(3), pages 482-502, March.
    19. Yonas Alem & Jonathan Colmer, 2022. "Blame it on the rain: Rainfall variability, consumption smoothing, and subjective well‐being in rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(3), pages 905-920, May.
    20. Sirikarn Lertamphainont & Robert Sparrow, 2016. "The Economic Impacts of Extreme Rainfall Events on Farming Households: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 45, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Drought; diff-in-diff; climate change; smallholder farmer; livestock holding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:284396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.