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Population forecasting with the Box-Jenkins approach

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  • Pflaumer, Peter

Abstract

The use of the Box-Jenkins approach for forecasting the population of the United States to the year 2080 is discussed. The forecasts are based on data for 1900-1980. It is shown that no major difference exists between the Box-Jenkins approach and parabolic trend curves when making long-range predictions. An investigation of forecasting accuracy indicates that the Box-Jenkins method produces population forecasts that are at least as reliable as those done with more traditional demographic methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Pflaumer, Peter, 1991. "Population forecasting with the Box-Jenkins approach," Discussion Papers, Series II 129, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:129
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    as
    1. Kenneth Land & David Cantor, 1983. "Arima models of seasonal variation in U. S. birth and death rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 20(4), pages 541-568, November.
    2. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
    3. Pflaumer, Peter, 1986. "Forecasting the German population with Monte Carlo methods," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 385-390.
    4. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
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