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Gefährden die unkonventionellen Maßnahmen der EZB den Ausstieg aus dem Niedrigzinsumfeld?

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  • Demary, Markus
  • Hüther, Michael

Abstract

Ausstieg aus dem Niedrigzinsumfeld? In vielen Ländern der Eurozone haben Regierungen, Unternehmen und private Haushalte den Prozess der Bereinigung ihrer Bilanzen noch nicht erfolgreich abgeschlossen. Die Schuldenstände sind nach wie vor hoch und drohen bei negativen Entwicklungen, wie dem Entstehen einer Deflation, nicht mehr tragfähig zu werden. Die Situation in einigen Ländern der Eurozone ist vergleichbar mit der eines Patienten, der sich von einer schweren Krankheit erholt, dessen Immunsystem ihn aber noch nicht hinreichend vor weiteren Infektionen schützt. Trotz der noch instabilen Situation der Eurozone stehen die umfangreichen geldpolitischen Maßnahmen der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) in der Kritik. Dieser Beitrag zeigt, dass die aktuelle Geldpolitik der EZB vor dem Hintergrund einer noch nicht überwundenen Bilanzrezession geboten ist. Zudem sind diese Maßnahmen weder ein Abgesang an einen möglichst baldigen Ausstieg aus dem Niedrigzinsumfeld, noch ein Abgesang an eine Fortführung von angebotsseitigen Reformen. Vielmehr müssen das Potentialwachstum der Eurozone steigen und die Inflationserwartungen in die Nähe des geldpolitischen Inflationsziels zurückkehren, um eine erfolgreiche Entschuldung zu ermöglichen und die Bilanzrezession zu beenden. Erst nach Überwindung der Bilanzrezession kann ein erfolgreicher Ausstieg aus dem Niedrigzinsumfeld erfolgen. Trotz ihrer erheblichen Nebenwirkungen ist die aktuelle ultra-expansive Geldpolitik geboten; es ist aber erforderlich, dass die Politik sämtliche ihrer Nebenwirkungen abmildert. Dazu gehört u.a. eine entschlossene Fortführung der angebotsseitigen Reformmaßnahmen durch die Regierungen der Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Demary, Markus & Hüther, Michael, 2015. "Gefährden die unkonventionellen Maßnahmen der EZB den Ausstieg aus dem Niedrigzinsumfeld?," IW policy papers 7/2015, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:72015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Diermeier, Matthias & Goecke, Henry, 2016. "Geldmenge und Inflation in Europa: Ist der Zusammenhang verloren?," IW policy papers 17/2016, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banken- und Staatsschuldenkrise; Bilanzrezession; Geldpolitik; Inflationserwartungen; Strukturreformen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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