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On the Twin Deficits Hypothesis and the Import Propensity in Transition Countries

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  • Gabrisch, Hubert

Abstract

This article uses co-integration and related techniques to test for a long-run causal relationship between the fiscal and external deficits of three post-transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, an import propensity model is tested by applying OLS and GMM. All the results reject the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. Instead, the results demonstrate that specific transition factors such as a high import intensity of exports and net capital inflows affect the trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabrisch, Hubert, 2011. "On the Twin Deficits Hypothesis and the Import Propensity in Transition Countries," IWH Discussion Papers 20/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-20-11
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    6. Gabrisch, Hubert, 2009. "Vertical Intra-Industry Trade, Technology and Income Distribution: A Panel Data Analysis of EU Trade with Central-East European Countries," MPRA Paper 64181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Marinheiro, Carlos Fonseca, 2008. "Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1041-1056.
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    1. Тұрабай Бердібек // Turabai Berdibek & Ускенбаев Азат // Uskenbayev Azat & Муратов Жасулан // Muratov Zhassulan & Алмагамбетова Меруерт // Almagambetova Meruyert & Оспанов Нурлан // Ospanov Nurlan, 2023. "Влияние государственных расходов на текущий счет платежного баланса Казахстана через канал импорта товаров // The impact of the government expenditures on the current account of the balance of payment," Working Papers #2023-5, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    2. Veronika Å uliková & Marianna SiniÄ Ã¡ková & Denis Horváth, 2014. "Twin Deficits in Small Open Baltic Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 227-239, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twin Deficits; import propensity; transition countries; Zwillingsdefizite; Importintensität; Transformationsländer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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