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Der Einfluss der US-amerikanischen Konjunktur auf Deutschland und die Europäische Union - eine Untersuchung mit VAR-Modellen

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  • Weyerstraß, Klaus

Abstract

Im Zusammenhang mit der jüngsten konjunkturellen Schwächephase wurde häufig argumentiert, dass Deutschland stärker von der konjunkturellen Situation in den USA abhängt als andere europäische Staaten. Die hier dargestellten Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich konjunkturelle Impulse aus den USA auf Deutschland auswirken. Es kann jedoch nicht darauf geschlossen werden, dass die im europäischen Vergleich besonders starke konjunkturelle Eintrübung in Deutschland im Jahr 2001 vor allem auf außenwirtschaftliche Ursachen zurück geführt werden kann, da sich im Zeitraum 1994 bis 2001 die Auswirkungen konjunktureller Impulse aus den USA auf Deutschland nicht von jenen auf die übrigen Staaten der Europäischen Union unterscheiden. Die empirischen Resultate zeigen zudem, dass sich konjunkturelle Schocks aus den Vereinigten Staaten im Zeitraum 1974 bis 1990 geringfügig stärker auf die Bundesrepublik Deutschland auswirkten als nach der deutschen Vereinigung.

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  • Weyerstraß, Klaus, 2002. "Der Einfluss der US-amerikanischen Konjunktur auf Deutschland und die Europäische Union - eine Untersuchung mit VAR-Modellen," IWH Discussion Papers 158/2002, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-158
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    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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    3. Seifert, Michael, 1997. "Zum Konjunkturverbund in Westeuropa," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 3(14), pages 9-12.
    4. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
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    1. Mark Meyer & Peter Winker*, 2005. "Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis: Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 303-320, August.

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