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Estimating the European Central Bank's "Extended Period of Time"

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  • Bletzinger, Tilman
  • Wieland, Volker

Abstract

On July 4, 2013 the ECB Governing Council provided more specific forward guidance than in the past by stating that it expects ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. As explained by ECB President Mario Draghi this expectation is based on the Council’s medium-term outlook for inflation conditional on economic activity and money and credit. Draghi also stressed that there is no precise deadline for this extended period of time, but that a reasonable period can be estimated by extracting a reaction function. In this note, we use such a reaction function, namely the interest rate rule from Orphanides and Wieland (2013) that matches past ECB interest rate decisions quite well, to project the rate path consistent with inflation and growth forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters published by the ECB on August 8, 2013. This evaluation suggests an increase in ECB interest rates by May 2014 at the latest. We also use the Eurosystem staff projection from June 6, 2013 for comparison. While it would imply a longer period of low rates, it does not match past ECB decisions as well as the reaction function with SPF forecasts.

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  • Bletzinger, Tilman & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Estimating the European Central Bank's "Extended Period of Time"," IMFS Working Paper Series 74, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:74
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guenter W. Beck & Volker Wieland, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 524-533, 04-05.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker W. Wieland, 2008. "Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 307-324.
    3. Beck, Guenter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Central bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest-rate rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2013. "Complexity and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 167-204, January.
    5. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    6. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    1. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2014. "Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 121-125.
    2. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve," Kiel Policy Brief 79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinksi & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Binnennachfrage trägt Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 64, 09.
    4. Bletzinger, Tilman & Wieland, Volker, 2016. "Forward guidance and "lower for longer": The case of the ECB," IMFS Working Paper Series 102, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Bletzinger, Tilman & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Lower for longer: The case of the ECB," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 123-127.
    6. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14 [Against a backward-looking economic policy. Annual Report 2013/14]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314, September.
    7. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Binnennachfrage trägt Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(3), pages 41-103.

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