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Indikatoren zur Prognose der Investitionen in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Schumacher, Christian
  • Loose, Brigitte
  • Langmantel, Erich
  • Gottschalk, Jan
  • Fritsche, Ulrich
  • Döpke, Jörg

Abstract

In diesem Papier werden eine Reihe von Frühindikatoren für die Entwicklung der Ausrüstungs-, Wirtschaftsbau- und Wohnungsbauinvestitionen in Deutschland untersucht. Die Indikatoren werden auf Basis theoretischer Erwägungen oder wegen ihres technischen Zusammenhangs zur Investitionstätigkeit ausgewählt. Der systematische Zusammenhang zwischen Frühindikator und Investitionsreihe wird mit Hilfe von Granger-Kausalitätstests untersucht. Der durchschnittliche Vorlauf wird anhand einer Kreuzkorrelationsanalyse bestimmt. Desweiteren wird das Verhalten der Indikatoren an den konjunkturellen Wendepunkten der Investitionsreihen betrachtet. Es zeigt sich, daß eine Reihe von Indikatoren für eine kurzfristige Prognose geeignet sind, daß aber eine Prognose über einen längerfristigen Zeitraum und die Vorhersage von konjunkturellen Wendepunkten nicht gelingt

Suggested Citation

  • Schumacher, Christian & Loose, Brigitte & Langmantel, Erich & Gottschalk, Jan & Fritsche, Ulrich & Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Indikatoren zur Prognose der Investitionen in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 906, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:zbw:iwhwiw:6-98-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1998. "Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(28), pages 07-19, October.
    3. Davis, E Philip & Fagan, Gabriel, 1997. "Are Financial Spreads Useful Indicators of Future Inflation and Output Growth in EU Countries?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 701-714, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Erich Langmantel, 1998. "Investitionsstau löst sich auf," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(19), pages 17-20, October.
    5. Loose, Brigitte & Ludwig, Udo, 1998. "Ostdeutscher Bausektor im freien Fall?," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 4(6), pages 4-11.
    6. Mailand, Wilhelm, 1998. "Zum Einfluß von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstätigkeit," HWWA Discussion Papers 57, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    7. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    2. Boss, Alfred & Gottschalk, Jan & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim & Schmidt, Rainer & Strauß, Hubert, 1999. "Erholung der deutschen Konjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2292, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2012. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Gedämpfte Expansion bei hohen Risiken," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 63(2), pages 41-97.
    4. Anna Billharz & Steffen Elstner & Marcus Jüppner, 2012. "Methoden der ifo Kurzfristprognose am Beispiel der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 24-33, November.
    5. Boss, Alfred & Döpke, Jörg & Gottschalk, Jan & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim & Schmidt, Rainer & Strauß, Hubert, 1999. "Produktionsabschwächung in Deutschland nur vorübergehend," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2261, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinski & Martin Micheli & Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2012. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Gedämpfte Expansion bei hohen Risiken," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 57, 09.

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    Keywords

    Frühindikatoren; Investitionen;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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