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Euroland's trade with the rest of the world: An SNA-based estimation

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  • Strauß, Hubert

Abstract

The paper presents an estimation of Euroland's foreign trade with the rest of the world based on the exports and imports of the eleven member states of the European Monetary Union according to their Systems of National Accounts (SNA). In order to isolate the trade with the rest of the world from intra- European trade flows, the share of intra-trade is derived from customs statistics. Once the time series are constructed, real exports are regressed on indexes of industrial production abroad and the real external value of the ecu - both calculated with respect to the 20 most important trading partners - using an error correction model. The estimation results are used to forecast Euroland's exports in 1998 and 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Strauß, Hubert, 1998. "Euroland's trade with the rest of the world: An SNA-based estimation," Kiel Working Papers 888, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:888
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Boss, Alfred & Döpke, Jörg & Fischer, Malte & Langfeldt, Enno & Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Scheide, Joachim, 1997. "Bundesrepublik Deutschland: Exportboom treibt Konjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1727, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ecu; Euro; error correction model; export forecast; intra-European trade; real external value;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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