IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/776.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Konvergieren oder divergieren die regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Westdeutschland? Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand von Markov-Ketten

Author

Listed:
  • Bode, Eckhardt

Abstract

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, welchen Beitrag die sogenannten Konvergenzregressionen einerseits und die Schätzungen von Markov-Ketten andererseits zur Klärung der Frage leisten können, ob die regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Westdeutschland seit Mitte der siebziger Jahre konvergiert oder divergiert sind. Es wird gezeigt, daß die Ergebnisse der klassischen Konvergenzregressionen aufgrund der zufallsbedingten „regression towards the mean" verzerrt sind und damit keine verläßliche Antwort geben können. Modellrechnungen unter der Annahme eines stochastischen Regressors erlauben jedoch die Schlußfolgerung, daß eine ökonomisch bedingte Konvergenz der regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen nur dann möglich ist, wenn die im Untersuchungszeitraum 1976-1992 beobachtbare Zunahme der Varianz der regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen ausschließlich durch exogene Schocks hervorgerufen wurde. Dies erscheint unwahrscheinlich im Hinblick auf die Tatsache, daß die Zunahme der Varianz zu einem erheblichen Teil auf nur zwei Regionen - die Ballungsräume Rhein-Main (um Frankfurt) und München - zurückzuführen ist. Schätzungen von Markov-Ketten ergeben demgegenüber eine deutliche, aber unvollständige absolute Konvergenz der regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Westdeutschland - allerdings mit zwei Ausnahmen: Die beiden Ballungsräume Rhein-Main und München, deren ohnehin hohe Pro-Kopf-Einkommen im Untersuchungszeitraum weiter kräftig gestiegen sind, scheinen sich zunehmend von den übrigen Regionen abzusetzen. Die für die Konvergenz/Divergenz-Debatte entscheidende Frage, ob dieser Prozeß dauerhaft ist und auf wachstumstheoretisch erklärbaren Ursachen beruht, oder ob er lediglich temporärer Natur und zufallsbedingt ist, erfordert weitere, tiefergehende Untersuchungen.

Suggested Citation

  • Bode, Eckhardt, 1996. "Konvergieren oder divergieren die regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Westdeutschland? Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand von Markov-Ketten," Kiel Working Papers 776, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:776
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/919/1/220527652.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. anonymous, 1995. "Does the bouncing ball lead to economic growth?," Regional Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-2,4-6.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    3. Stolpe, Michael, 1995. "Technology and the dynamics of specialization in open economies," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 738, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    5. Lichtenberg, Frank R, 1994. "Testing the Convergence Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 576-579, August.
    6. Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1997. "Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 81-102, March.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    8. Paqué, Karl-Heinz, 1995. "Gibt es auf lange Sicht eine internationale Konvergenz der Pro-Kopf-Einkommen?," Kiel Working Papers 700, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Bernhard Herz & Werner Roger, 1995. "Economic growth and convergence in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(1), pages 132-143, March.
    10. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-2132, December.
    11. Bode, Eckhardt, 1996. "Ursachen regionaler Wachstumsunterschiede: wachstumstheoretische Erklärungsansätze," Kiel Working Papers 740, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Quah, D., 1990. "Galton'S Fallacy And The Tests Of The Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 552, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    13. Krieger-Boden, Christiane, 1995. "Die räumliche Dimension in der Wirtschaftstheorie: Ältere und neuere Erklärungsansätze," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 832, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. repec:bla:scandj:v:95:y:1993:i:4:p:427-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Melanie Krause, 2017. "The Millennium Peak in Club Convergence: A New Look at Distributional Changes in The Wealth of Nations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 621-642, April.
    2. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Lee, Young Sun, 2006. "Analyzing the Korea's growth experience: The application of R&D and human capital based growth models with demography," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 818-831, November.
    3. Rensman, Marieke, 1996. "Economic growth and technological change in the long run : a survey of theoretical and empirical literature," Research Report 96C10, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    4. repec:zbw:rwidps:0030 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Peter Gripaios & Paul Bishop, 2005. "Spatial inequalities in UK GDP per head: The role of private and public services," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(8), pages 945-958, December.
    6. Olivier Parent & Abdallah Zouache, 2009. "Geographical Features vs. Institutional Factors: New Perspectives on The Growth of Africa and Middle-East," Working Papers 490, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2009.
    7. Anil Rupasingha & Stephan J. Goetz & David Freshwater, 2002. "Social and institutional factors as determinants of economic growth: Evidence from the United States counties," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(2), pages 139-155.
    8. Stephen Dobson & Carlyn Ramlogan & Eric Strobl, 2006. "Why Do Rates Of Β‐Convergence Differ? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(2), pages 153-173, May.
    9. Middendorf Torge, 2006. "Human Capital and Economic Growth in OECD Countries," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(6), pages 670-686, December.
    10. Beugelsdijk, S. & Smulders, J.A., 2009. "Bonding and Bridging Social Capital and Economic Growth," Discussion Paper 2009-27, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.
    12. Beugelsdijk, S. & van Schaik, A.B.T.M., 2001. "Social Capital and Regional Economic Growth," Other publications TiSEM 874f4bc4-bef9-499c-829e-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Peter Mulder & Henri Groot, 2007. "Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(1), pages 85-112, January.
    14. Ilkhom SHARIPOV, 2016. "ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU’S EaP COUNTRIES: DETERMINANTS AND PROSPECTS," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 169-187.
    15. Norman Gemmell, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Growth Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Chi-Keung Lau, 2010. "Convergence Across the United States: Evidence from Panel ESTAR Unit Root Test," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 52-64, February.
    17. Wößmann, Ludger, 2000. "Specifying Human Capital: A Review, Some Extensions, and Development Effects," Kiel Working Papers 1007, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    19. Iftikhar Ahmad, 2016. "Assessing the Effects of Fiscal Decentralization on the Education Sector: A Cross-Country Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 53-96, July-Dec.
    20. Srinivas, Goli, 2014. "Demographic convergence and its linkage with health inequalities in India," MPRA Paper 79823, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2014.
    21. repec:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2006_vol__xxxiii_nos__1and2-b is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Bos, J.W.B. & Economidou, C. & Koetter, M., 2010. "Technology clubs, R&D and growth patterns: Evidence from EU manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 60-79, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:776. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.