IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/637.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Technology and empirical dynamics of specialization in open economies

Author

Listed:
  • Stolpe, Michael

Abstract

This paper applies Markov chain analysis to examine the empirical dynamics of sectoral specialization in open economies. At issue is here persistence and the hypothesis of hysteresis in national patterns of industrial specialization, often claimed as an implication of strong path dependence in the evolution of high-technologies specific to certain industries. The evidence from twelve OECD member countries' time series of value added in 17 manufacturing industries and from corresponding patent count data does not support the hypothesis of hysteresis based on nationally restricted knowledge spillovers from industrial research and development activities. On the contrary, there seems to be generally lower persistence in patterns of technological specialization than in the corresponding production specialization. Moreover, high persistence in some parts of manufacturing mostly disappears when taking into account changes in countries' relative factor endowments, which form the basis of dynamic comparative advantages. These findings cast doubt on the popular belief that a government can — by making cleverly designed and appropriately timed industrial policy interventions — secure a permanently larger share of certain industries for the national economy which are supposed to lock in first mover advantages in terms of particularly high rates of technological innovation and productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Stolpe, Michael, 1994. "Technology and empirical dynamics of specialization in open economies," Kiel Working Papers 637, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:637
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/666/1/043472672.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    2. von Hippel, Eric, 1976. "The dominant role of users in the scientific instrument innovation process," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 212-239, July.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    4. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    5. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    6. Ethier, Wilfred J., 1984. "Higher dimensional issues in trade theory," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 131-184, Elsevier.
    7. Quah, D., 1990. "Galton'S Fallacy And The Tests Of The Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 552, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    8. Rosenberg,Nathan, 1994. "Exploring the Black Box," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521459556, September.
    9. Brezis, Elise S & Krugman, Paul R & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1993. "Leapfrogging in International Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1211-1219, December.
    10. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    11. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-1423, November.
    12. repec:bla:scandj:v:95:y:1993:i:4:p:427-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2004. "Endogenous Growth in Open Economies - A Survey of Major Results," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp04020, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    2. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    3. Andreas Pyka & Jens J. Kruger & Uwe Cantner, 2003. "Twin Peaks: What the Knowledge-based Approach Can Say about the Dynamics of the World Income Distribution," Chapters, in: Pier Paolo Saviotti (ed.), Applied Evolutionary Economics, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Stolpe, Michael, 1995. "Technology and the dynamics of specialization in open economies," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 738, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Mark Rogers, 2003. "A Survey of Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 112-135, March.
    6. Cristina Brasili & Luciano Gutierrez, 2004. "Regional convergence across European Union," Development and Comp Systems 0402002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. G Cameron, 1996. "Innovation and Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0277, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    9. Simon Wiederhold, 2012. "The Role of Public Procurement in Innovation: Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 43.
    10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2004. "Testing for output convergence: a re-examination," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 45-63, January.
    11. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    12. Chong-Kee Yip & Tsz-Nga Wong, 2014. "A Model of Technology Assimilation," 2014 Meeting Papers 144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Maria Luisa Mancusi, 2003. "Geographical concentration and the dynamics of countries' specialization in technologies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 269-291.
    14. Maurseth, Per Botolf, 2001. "Convergence, geography and technology," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 247-276, September.
    15. Maria Luisa Mancusi, 2000. "The Dynamics of Technology in Industrial Countries," KITeS Working Papers 118, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Nov 2000.
    16. Chang-Yang Lee, 2012. "Learning-by-doing in R&D, knowledge threshold, and technological divide," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 109-132, January.
    17. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Twin peaks : growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2278, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Lee, Jaehwa, 2009. "Trade, FDI, and productivity convergence: A dynamic panel data approach in 25 countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 226-238, August.
    19. Michelle P. Connolly, 1997. "Technological diffusion through trade and imitation," Staff Reports 20, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.