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Technologischer und gesellschaftlicher Wandel: Theorien im Vergleich

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  • van Roon, Gerrit

Abstract

In dieser Arbeit sollen über die Grenzen der Wirtschaft hinaus die zyklischen Theorien des 20. Jahrhunderts auf ihre Bedeutung für die Gegenwart untersucht und damit auch Zukunftsperspektiven erhellt werden. Ein frühes Beispiel einer Analyse der gesellschaftlichen Transformationsprozesse und ihrer Wechselbeziehung mit dem wirtschaftlichen Wandel war die Drei-Zyklentheorie Vilfredo Paretos, die, angeregt von den Konjunkturschwankungen in den letzten dreißig Jahren des 19. Jahrhunderts, einen politischen, einen wirtschaftlichen und einen ideologischen Zyklus diagnostizierte [Powers, Hannemann, 1983]. Pareto zufolge lassen sich die politischen Transformationsprozesse in der Gesellschaft nur schwer von den wirtschaftlichen trennen. Die Politik ist eng mit dem wirtschaftlichen Wohlergehen verknüpft und beide wirken aufeinander ein. Geht es wirtschaftlich schlecht, dann nimmt die Instabilität in der Politik zu, andererseits wird die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung unsicher, wenn die Politik versagt. In einer Periode hohen Wirtschaftswachstums wird das Regieren leichter und lockerer, und die Privatinitiative hat die Oberhand; während einer Depressionsperiode erhöht sich der staatliche Einfluß auf die Wirtschaft, und der Dirigismus wird stärker. Der ideologische Zyklus ist bei Pareto eine nachhinkende Erscheinung, wobei sich Säkularisierung und Traditionalismus abwechseln. Man könnte die Drei-Zyklentheorie Paretos eine Theorie des sozialen Wandels nennen, in der die wellenförmigen Bewegungen gesellschaftlicher Phänomene hervorgehoben werden.

Suggested Citation

  • van Roon, Gerrit, 1991. "Technologischer und gesellschaftlicher Wandel: Theorien im Vergleich," Kiel Working Papers 493, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:493
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