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Konjunkturschwankungen in den asiatischen NICs und in ausgewählten Industrieländern: Synchronisation oder Divergenz?

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  • Fels, Joachim

Abstract

Die stärkste Dynamik in der Weltwirtschaft entfaltet derzeit die asiatisch-pazifische Region. Besonders kräftig wachsen dort die vier Schwellenländer Südkorea, Taiwan, Hongkong und Singapur, die im folgenden als asiatische NICs (für Newly Industrializing Countries) bezeichnet werden. Sie schufen die Voraussetzungen für ihren rasanten wirtschaftlichen Aufholprozeß bereits in den sechziger Jahren: Im Gegensatz zu den lateinamerikanischen Schwellenländern schwenkte die Wirtschaftspolitik nach einer ersten Phase der Importsubstitution um auf einen exportorientierten, marktwirtschaftlichen Kurs . Die Öffnung hat in erheblichem Maße zu dem viel- 2 beschriebenen Wirtschaftswunder beigetragen . Die Folgen der verstärkten Integration in die Weltwirtschaft für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung in den NICs sind bisher allerdings kaum untersucht worden. Der vorliegende Beitrag ist ein erster Versuch, diese Lücke zu schließen: Konjunkturschwankungen in den asiatischen NICs werden dargestellt und mit denen in den Vereinigten Staaten und Japan, den wichtigsten Handelspartnerländern, verglichen. Im Vordergrund steht dabei die Frage, ob die Schwellenländer weitgehend im konjunkturellen Gleichschritt mit diesen Industrieländern marschieren oder ob es starke Unterschiede in der zyklischen Entwicklung gibt. Dabei sollen lediglich einige stilisierte Fakten gewonnen werden, die als Ausgangspunkt für weitere Untersuchungen - etwa über mögliche Transmissionskanäle - dienen können.

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  • Fels, Joachim, 1988. "Konjunkturschwankungen in den asiatischen NICs und in ausgewählten Industrieländern: Synchronisation oder Divergenz?," Kiel Working Papers 340, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:340
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