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An econometric model of the world nickel industry

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  • Rafati, Mohammed R.

Abstract

The Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea has been concluded in the spring of 1982 with the adoption of a convention text. The acceptance of this text (signature and ratification) by the necessary number of states is still highly uncertain. The major disagreements relate to the convention's seabed mining regime, in particular the provisions for production controls and technology transfer. Among the four metals which can be recovered from the seabed - manganese nodules containing manganese, cobalt, copper and nickel - over half of the potential revenues would come from nickel. Conditions in the nickel market will have an impact on investment decisions in seabed mining and the nickel market itself may be significantly affected by nickel output from manganese nodules. The purpose of this paper is to present and estimate an econometric model for the world nickel industry. Furthermore, in order to quantify the impact of alternative seabed mining regimes on the future price of nickel as well as on the output of nickel from current land-based sources, a simulation analysis is provided. Such a simulation model is also helpful in estimating the revenue losses that land-based producers might incur as a result of seabed mining.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafati, Mohammed R., 1982. "An econometric model of the world nickel industry," Kiel Working Papers 160, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:160
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dick, Rolf, 1981. "Tiefseebergbau versus Landbergbau: Metallproduktion aus Manganknollen und Nickellateriterzen im Wirtschaftlichkeitsvergleich," Kiel Working Papers 131, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Rafati, M. Reza, 1981. "Price determination in monopolistic markets with inventory adjustment," Kiel Working Papers 125, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrlich, Lars G., 2018. "What drives nickel prices: A structural VAR approach," HWWI Research Papers 186, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    2. Foders, Federico, 1984. "Who gains from deep-sea mining?," Kiel Working Papers 206, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Foders, Federico, 1985. "Who gains from deep-sea mining?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3292, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Radetzki, Marian, 2013. "The relentless progress of commodity exchanges in the establishment of primary commodity prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 266-277.
    5. Foders, Federico, 1984. "Allokations- und Verteilungswirkungen alternativer Regelungen von internationaler Gemeinnutzungsressourcen," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3286, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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