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Fiscal Taylor rules in the postwar United States

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  • Reicher, Christopher Phillip

Abstract

Recent research and events have brought fiscal policy back into the spotlight. Fiscal Taylor rules and error correction models have represented two different ways of quantifying the feedbacks from fiscal and economic conditions to fiscal policy decisions. This paper synthesizes these two ideas, estimating a fiscal Taylor rule as a special case of an error correction model. Using quarterly postwar U.S. data, estimates of a fiscal Taylor rule find that the government sector has sought to stabilize its debt through adjustments to purchases and taxes, in that order, with very little stabilization coming through adjustments to transfer payments. Since 1981, the debt-stabilization motive has almost vanished, while the cyclical behavior of fiscal variables has not changed. This provides indirect evidence that fiscal policy may have become "non-Ricardian" in the US during recent decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2009. "Fiscal Taylor rules in the postwar United States," Kiel Working Papers 1509, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1509
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Solmaz Moslehi & Vivianne Vilar, 2013. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level When All Income is Taxed," Monash Economics Working Papers 09-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taxation; government spending; transfer payments; fiscal policy; deficits; fiscal Taylor Rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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