IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1204.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investigating the impact of an appreciation of the euro in a small macroeconometric model of Germany and the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick

Abstract

Since the start of European monetary union, the macroeconomic situation in Germany can in many respects only be analyzed in combination with the situation in the rest of the euro area. To take this into account, a small macroeconometric model is constructed that models the euro area as consisting of two regions, Germany and the rest of the euro area. The rest of the world is treated as exogenous. Given problems with modelling the relevant relationships in a standard vector autoregression approach, the model is set up as a dynamic simultaneous equations model. The model is used to study the impact of monetary policy or of exchange rate changes on economic activity in Germany and the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2004. "Investigating the impact of an appreciation of the euro in a small macroeconometric model of Germany and the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1204, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/3393/1/kap1204.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benner, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Kamps, Annette & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim, 2003. "Industrieländer: Aufschwung setzt sich durch," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3124, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. David Rae & David Turner, 2001. "A Small Global Forecasting Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 286, OECD Publishing.
    3. Kohli, Ulrich, 2004. "Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 83-106, January.
    4. repec:bla:ecorec:v:78:y:2002:i:242:p:312-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Krasker, William S. & Kuh, Edwin & Welsch, Roy E., 1983. "Estimation for dirty data and flawed models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 651-698, Elsevier.
    6. David Brownstone & Robert Valletta, 2001. "The Bootstrap and Multiple Imputations: Harnessing Increased Computing Power for Improved Statistical Tests," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 129-141, Fall.
    7. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    8. Thimann, Christian & Buldorini, Luca & Makrydakis, Stelios, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    9. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    10. Kevin J. Fox & Ulrich Kohli & Ronald S. Warren Jr., 2002. "Accounting for Growth and Output Gaps: Evidence from New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 312-326, September.
    11. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank.
    12. J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), 2001. "Handbook of Econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 5, March.
    13. Benner, Joachim & Borbély, Dóra & Boss, Alfred & Kamps, Annette & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim & Schmidt, Rainer, 2002. "Deutschland: Aufschwung lässt auf sich warten," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2853, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 459-468, October.
    15. Clements, Michael P. & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-267.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2006. "Macroeconomic aspects of structural labor market reforms in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1295, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Verhaltener Aufschwung in Euroland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3215, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Moderate upswing in Euroland," Kiel Discussion Papers 410, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Borbély, Dóra & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2003. "Macroeconomic interval forecasting: the case of assessing the risk of deflation in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1153, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Anderton, Robert & di Mauro, Filippo & Moneta, Fabio, 2004. "Understanding the impact of the external dimension on the euro area: trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages," Occasional Paper Series 12, European Central Bank.
    5. Winkler, Adalbert & Geis, André & Böwer, Uwe, 2007. "Commodity price fluctuations and their impact on monetary and fiscal policies in Western and Central Africa," Occasional Paper Series 60, European Central Bank.
    6. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Mr. Gustavo Ramirez, 2007. "Competitiveness in the CFA Franc Zone," IMF Working Papers 2007/212, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Russo, Daniela & Hart, Terry L. & Malaguti, Maria Chiara & Papathanassiou, Chryssa, 2004. "Governance of securities clearing and settlement systems," Occasional Paper Series 21, European Central Bank.
    8. Russo, Daniela & Caviglia, Giacomo & Papathanassiou, Chryssa & Rosati, Simonetta, 2007. "Prudential and oversight requirements for securities settlement," Occasional Paper Series 76, European Central Bank.
    9. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Wolswijk, Guido & de Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices," Occasional Paper Series 25, European Central Bank.
    11. Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2003. "An introduction to the ECB's survey of professional forecasters," Occasional Paper Series 8, European Central Bank.
    12. Gonzalez, F. & Haas, F. & Johannes, R. & Persson, M. & Toledo, L. & Violi, R. & Zins, C. & Wieland, M., 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings: a literature review," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 4, pages 53-76, June.
    13. Strasser, Georg, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through and credit constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 25-38.
    14. Willman, Alpo & Whelan, Karl & Altissimo, Filippo & Georgiou, Evaggelia & Sastre, Teresa & Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Sterne, Gabriel & Stocker, Marc & Weth, Mark, 2005. "Wealth and asset price effects on economic activity," Occasional Paper Series 29, European Central Bank.
    15. Thimann, Christian & Drage, John & Nikitin, Minna & Just, Christian & Pauli, Rolf & Committeri, Marco & Weber, Pierre-François & Fernández de Lis, Santiago & von Stenglin, Stephan & Hollensen, Ole & B, 2005. "Managing financial crises in emerging market economies - experience with the involvement of private sector creditors," Occasional Paper Series 32, European Central Bank.
    16. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    17. Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Density Forecasts With Midas Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 783-801, June.
    18. González, Fernando & Coppens, François & Winkler, Gerhard, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Occasional Paper Series 65, European Central Bank.
    19. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & João Cerejeira & Miguel Portela, 2009. "Aggregate and sector-specific exchange rate indexes for the Portuguese economy," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 30, pages 6-28, December.
    20. Enderlein, Henrik & Lindner, Johannes & Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Ritter, Raymond, 2005. "The EU budget - how much scope for institutional reform?," Occasional Paper Series 27, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometric model for Germany; euro area; appreciation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.