IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkpb/305305.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

US trade policy after 2024: What is at stake for Europe?

Author

Listed:
  • Felbermayr, Gabriel
  • Hinz, Julian
  • Langhammer, Rolf J.

Abstract

Following the upcoming U.S. elections, the EU should prioritize defending the multilateral trade system, as a collapse in global economic cooperation could impact Europe up to four times more than direct U.S. tariffs alone. Potential U.S. trade policies under either a Harris or second Trump administration are expected to remain protectionist, though Harris would likely adopt a more multilateral stance, while Trump could intensify tariffs and weaken the WTO's role. If the U.S. imposes broad tariffs-such as a 10% surcharge on imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods-global trade could shrink by 2.5% initially, with greater contractions if trade partners retaliate. While some EU sectors, like high-tech, may see short-term output gains due to relative competitiveness, EU GDP would still decline, with Germany facing GDP losses of up to €6 billion and significant impacts in key sectors like automotive and pharmaceuticals. In the most severe scenario, a breakdown of the WTO or fragmentation into competing geopolitical blocs would lead to profound economic losses. EU GDP could fall by up to 0.5%, with Germany's output declining by 3.2%, while China would bear the greatest losses. Given the high stakes, the EU's priority must be to uphold the global trade system, as the costs of fragmentation far exceed those of a bilateral dispute with the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Felbermayr, Gabriel & Hinz, Julian & Langhammer, Rolf J., 2024. "US trade policy after 2024: What is at stake for Europe?," Kiel Policy Brief 178, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:305305
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/305305/1/1907416862.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    2. Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz & Katrin Kamin & Joschka Wanner, 2024. "Brothers in arms: the value of coalitions in sanctions regimes," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(118), pages 471-512.
    3. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 850-863, November.
    4. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    5. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Martin T Braml & Gabriel J Felbermayr, 2019. "What Do We Really Know about the Transatlantic Current Account?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(3), pages 255-274.
    7. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    8. Robert Dekle & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2008. "Global Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 511-540, July.
    9. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    10. Arnaud Costinot & Iván Werning, 2019. "Lerner Symmetry: A Modern Treatment," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 13-26, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cappariello, Rita & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Gunnella, Vanessa & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 2020. "Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108423, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Gabriel Felbermayr & Hendrik Mahlkow & Alexander Sandkamp, 2023. "Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 75-108, February.
    4. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    5. Lashkaripour, Ahmad, 2021. "The cost of a global tariff war: A sufficient statistics approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Lisandra Flach & Inga Heiland & Mario Larch & Marina Steininger & Feodora A. Teti, 2024. "Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 281-323, February.
    7. Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz & Katrin Kamin & Joschka Wanner, 2024. "Brothers in arms: the value of coalitions in sanctions regimes," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(118), pages 471-512.
    8. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Simone Cigna & Philipp Meinen & Patrick Schulte & Nils Steinhoff, 2022. "The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 162-173, January.
    10. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    11. Bellora, Cecilia & Fontagné, Lionel, 2023. "EU in search of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Borin, Alessandro & Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Di Stefano, Enrica & Gunnella, Vanessa & Mancini, Michele & Panon, Ludovic, 2023. "Trade decoupling from Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 25-44.
    14. Borusyak, Kirill & Jaravel, Xavier, 2024. "Are trade wars class wars? The importance of trade-induced horizontal inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Bellora, Cecilia, 2020. "Carbon Border Adjustment and Alternatives," Conference papers 333210, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Rasa Stasiukynaite, 2019. "Reordering international trade: what will it cost?," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 27, Bank of Lithuania.
    17. J.A. Giesecke & R. Waschik & N.H. Tran, 2019. "Modelling the Consequences of the U.S.-China Trade War and Related Trade Frictions for the U.S., Chinese, Australian and Global Economies," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-294, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    18. Ju, Jiandong & Ma, Hong & Wang, Zi & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2024. "Trade wars and industrial policy competitions: Understanding the US-China economic conflicts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 42-58.
    19. Sanyal, Anirban, 2023. "Caught in the Crossfire: How Trade Policy Uncertainty Impacts Global Trade," EconStor Preprints 272825, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Lionel Fontagné & Houssein Guimbard & Gianluca Orefice, 2019. "Product-Level Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 2019-17, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade wars; WTO; tariffs; decoupling; fragmentation; Handelskriege; WTO; Zölle; Entkopplung; Fragmentierung;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:305305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.