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The US-China trade deal and its impact on China's key trading partners

Author

Listed:
  • Chowdhry, Sonali
  • Felbermayr, Gabriel

Abstract

Das Wirtschafts- und Handelsabkommen (ETA) zwischen den USA und China trat am 14. Februar 2020 in Kraft und eröffnete eine neue Phase in der schon langandauenden handels- und geopolitischen Rivalität zwischen beiden Ländern. Das ETA enthält spezifische Ziele für die Erhöhung der chinesischen Importe von US-Gütern und -Dienstleistungen in Höhe von 200 Mrd. US-Dollar für die Jahre 2020 und 2021. Die Autoren zeigen, dass diese Abnahmeverpflichtungen erhebliche Handelsumlenkungseffekte und Marktanteilsverschiebungen für Chinas wichtigste Handelspartner zur Folge haben können. Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe dürfte Deutschland von den größten Handelsumlenkungseffekten in einer Reihe von Branchen wie Fahrzeuge (-1,28 Mrd. US-Dollar), Flugzeuge (-1,59 Mrd. US-Dollar) und Industriemaschinen (-0,72 Mrd. US-Dollar) betroffen sein. Ebenso werden Entwicklungsländer die Auswirkungen des ETA spüren, wenn China seine Importe auf US-Lieferanten umleitet. Alleine Brasilien könnte im Jahr 2021 infolge des ETA einen Rückgang der Sojabohnenexporte nach China um 4,95 Mrd. US-Dollar erleiden.

Suggested Citation

  • Chowdhry, Sonali & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2020. "The US-China trade deal and its impact on China's key trading partners," Kiel Policy Brief 134, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chowdhry, Sonali & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2020. "The US-China trade deal: How the EU and WTO lose from managed trade," Kiel Policy Brief 132, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Cited by:

    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2020 - Weltwirtschaft im Stresstest [World Economy Spring 2020 - World economy under strain]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 63, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Michael Funke & Adrian Wende, 2021. "The US-China Phase One Trade Deal: An Economic Analysis of the Managed Trade Agreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 8945, CESifo.
    3. Freund,Caroline & Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Ruta,Michele, 2020. "When Elephants Make Peace : The Impact of the China-U.S. Trade Agreement on Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9173, The World Bank.
    4. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 33477, The World Bank Group.
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Michael Funke & Adrian Wende, 2023. "The US–China Phase One trade deal: An economic analysis of the managed trade agreement," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(2), pages 758-786, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US-China trade relations; trade diversion; multilateralism; Beziehungen USA-China; Handelsumlenkung; Multilateralismus;
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