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Ursachen des Geburtenrückgangs in ökonomischer Sicht: Theoretische Ansätze und empirische Ergebnisse unter Berücksichtigung der Verhältnisse in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland

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  • Wander, Hilde

Abstract

Ausgehend von den Erkenntnissen der modernen ökonomischen Fruchtbarkeitstheorie wurden mit Hilfe der Regressionsanalyse einige wichtige Zusammenhänge zwischen der sozio-ökonomischen Entwicklung und dem Geburtentrend in der Bundesrepublik untersucht: Es ergab sich, daß der absolute Anstieg der Einkommen entgegen einer verbreiteten Annahme keine entscheidende Rolle für die Fruchtbarkeitsentwicklung gespielt hat. Vielmehr zeigte sich, daß die Geburtenhäufigkeit gut mit der relativen Einkommensposition korrespondiert — also mit dem Abstand der Durchschnittseinkommen junger Haushaltsvorstände gegenüber dem Durchschnittseinkommen von Vergleichshaushalten der Bezugsgruppen (Haushalte der Eltern und Haushalte mit einem fünf bis zehn Jahre älteren Haushaltsvorstand). Bei wenig veränderter sozialer Schichtung führten absolut steigende Realeinkommen bis zur Mitte der sechziger Jahre zu einem Anstieg der Geburtenraten. Danach verschlechterte sich die relative Einkommensposition junger Ehepaare trotz weiter zunehmender Realeinkommen ständig, und die Geburtenrate sank. Zugleich gewannen die Wertvorstellungen der Mittelklasse zunehmend an Gewicht. Das hierdurch geprägte Anspruchsniveau konnten junge Ehepaare in der Regel nur noch befriedigen, wenn die Frau mitarbeitete und die Kinderzahl klein blieb. Eine Bevölkerungspolitik, die einen Wiederanstieg der Geburtenrate zum Ziel hat, muß diesen Zusammenhängen Rechnung tragen. Sie wird versuchen müssen, die relative Einkommensposition zugunsten der jungen Ehepaare zu verändern. Sie wird aber vor allem durch ein Bündel wohlkoordinierter Maßnahmen dafür sorgen müssen, daß die Frauen ihre Aufgaben in der Familie und im Beruf besser miteinander verbinden können.

Suggested Citation

  • Wander, Hilde, 1980. "Ursachen des Geburtenrückgangs in ökonomischer Sicht: Theoretische Ansätze und empirische Ergebnisse unter Berücksichtigung der Verhältnisse in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland," Kiel Discussion Papers 71, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:71
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