IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201533.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bias and methodological change in economic sanction reconsidered

Author

Listed:
  • van Bergeijk, Peter A. G.
  • Hossain Siddiquee, Muhammad Shahadat

Abstract

The authors investigate the influence of case selection and (re)coding for two vintages of a key resource for research on economic sanctions: the Peterson Institute data base reported in Hufbauer et al. (Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 2nd edition in 1990 and 3rd edition in 2007). The Peterson Institute has not reported transparently on these changes. At the level of individual case studies the authors uncover a tendency to inflate success scores, reclassifying failures into successes even when the evidence for doing so was not convincing. At the level of the aggregated case studies and general methodology they uncover positive bias (that is: methodological changes that make it more likely to find sanction success as indicated by a higher success score, either on average or in individual cases): splitting of episodes into cases and the changed definition of sanction contribution increase the success ratio in general and ultimately the share of sanctions that are judged to be a success. The authors also show the importance of the reclassification of 'destabilization cases' into 'regime changes'. Their probit analysis shows that the 3rd edition's methodology underestimates the contribution of certain sanction characteristics, including the positive impact of the costs of sanctions to the sender, duration of the sanctions and the sender's companion policies.

Suggested Citation

  • van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Hossain Siddiquee, Muhammad Shahadat, 2015. "Bias and methodological change in economic sanction reconsidered," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201533
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2015-33
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/110307/1/825708842.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Makio Miyagawa, 1992. "Do Economic Sanctions Work?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-22400-5, December.
    2. Navin A. Bapat & Tobias Heinrich & Yoshiharu Kobayashi & T. Clifton Morgan, 2013. "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 79-98, January.
    3. Alastair Smith, 1995. "The success and use of economic sanctions," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 229-245.
    4. Hedley Bull, 1984. "Economic Sanctions and Foreign Policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 218-222, June.
    5. A. Cooper Drury, 1998. "Revisiting Economic Sanctions Reconsidered," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 35(4), pages 497-509, July.
    6. Shane Bonetti, 1998. "Distinguishing characteristics of degrees of success and failure in economic sanctions episodes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 805-813.
    7. Peter A. G. VAN Bergeijk, 1989. "Success and Failure of Economic Sanctions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 385-404, August.
    8. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Economic Diplomacy and the Geography of International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13518.
    9. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & van Marrewijk, Charles, 1995. "Why do sanctions need time to work? Adjustment, learning and anticipation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 75-86, April.
    10. Kaempfer, William H. & Lowenberg, Anton D., 2007. "The Political Economy of Economic Sanctions," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 27, pages 867-911, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Demena, B.A. & Benalcazar Jativa, G. & Reta, A.S. & Kimararungu, P.B. & van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2021. "Does research on economic sanctions suffer from publication bias?," ISS Working Papers - General Series 674, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Economic Diplomacy and the Geography of International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13518.
    3. William Seitz & Alberto Zazzaro, 2020. "Sanctions and public opinion: The case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 817-843, October.
    4. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Morgan, T. Clifton & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "Understanding economic sanctions: Interdisciplinary perspectives on theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Mirkina, Irina, 2018. "FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 198-225.
    6. Shahadat Hossain Siddiquee, M. & van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2012. "Reconsidering economic sanctions reconsidered. A detailed analysis of the Peterson Institute sanction database," ISS Working Papers - General Series 549, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    7. Denise Guthrie & Erick Duchesne, 2003. "(Mis)Selection Effects and Sovereignty Costs: An Alternative Measure of the Costs of Sanctions," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20032, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
    8. Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji, 2014. "The effects of oil shocks on government expenditures and government revenues nexus (with an application to Iran's sanctions)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 299-313.
    9. Menevis Cilizoglu & Navin A Bapat, 2020. "Economic coercion and the problem of sanctions-proofing," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 385-408, July.
    10. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2022. "The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 599-616.
    11. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, 2019. "The impact of economic sanctions on international trade: How do threatened sanctions compare with imposed sanctions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 11-26.
    12. Dizaji, S.F., 2012. "The effects of oil shocks on government expenditures and government revenues nexus in Iran (as a developing oil-export based economy)," ISS Working Papers - General Series 540, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    13. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji & Peter A G van Bergeijk, 2013. "Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(6), pages 721-736, November.
    14. Joshi, Sumit & Mahmud, Ahmed Saber, 2018. "Unilateral and multilateral sanctions: A network approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 52-65.
    15. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku & Mahadevan, Renuka, 2016. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Income Inequality of Target States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-11.
    16. Devasmita Jena & C. Akash & Prachi Gupta, 2024. "Deflecting economic sanctions: do trade and political alliances matter?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 543-567, July.
    17. Caruso Raul, 2003. "The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade: An Empirical Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-36, April.
    18. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & van Marrewijk, Charles, 1995. "Why do sanctions need time to work? Adjustment, learning and anticipation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 75-86, April.
    19. Brzoska Michael, 2008. "Measuring the Effectiveness of Arms Embargoes," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-34, July.
    20. von Soest, Christian & Wahman, Michael, 2013. "Sanctions and Democratization in the Post-Cold War Era," GIGA Working Papers 212, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sanctions; peterson institute; replication; bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.