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Empirical linkage between oil price and stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from international developed markets

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  • Dhaoui, Abderrazak
  • Khraief, Naceur

Abstract

This paper examines empirically whether oil price shocks impact stock market returns. Using monthly data for eight developed countries from January 1991 to September 2013, strong negative connections between oil price and stock market returns are found in seven of the selected countries. Oil price changes are without significant effect on the stock market of Singapore. On the volatility of returns, the changes in oil prices are significant for six markets and they have not much effect on the others.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Khraief, Naceur, 2014. "Empirical linkage between oil price and stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from international developed markets," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201412
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    3. Rida Waheed & Chen Wei & Suleman Sarwar & Yulan Lv, 2018. "Impact of oil prices on firm stock return: industry-wise analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 765-780, September.
    4. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2016. "Global oil market and the U.S. stock returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1277-1287.
    5. Kayalar, Derya Ezgi & Küçüközmen, C. Coşkun & Selcuk-Kestel, A. Sevtap, 2017. "The impact of crude oil prices on financial market indicators: copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 162-173.
    6. Shaeri, Komeil & Adaoglu, Cahit & Katircioglu, Salih T., 2016. "Oil price risk exposure: A comparison of financial and non-financial subsectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 712-723.
    7. Rabia Najaf & Khakan Najaf, 2016. "An empirical study on the dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and Nigera stock market," International Journal of Academic Research in Management and Business, International Journal of Academic Research in Management and Business, vol. 1(2), pages 63-76, September.
    8. Alexandra Horobet & Georgiana Vrinceanu & Consuela Popescu & Lucian Belascu, 2019. "Oil Price and Stock Prices of EU Financial Companies: Evidence from Panel Data Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, October.
    9. Ekhlas Al-hajj & Usama Al-Mulali & Sakiru Adebola Solarin, 2021. "Exploring the nexus between oil price shocks and sectoral stock returns: a new evidence from stock exchange in Malaysia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 199-217, February.
    10. Shafa Guliyeva, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indexes During the Epidemic Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 526-536, March.
    11. Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "What drives long-term oil market volatility? Fundamentals versus speculation," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-26.
    12. Aloui, Riadh & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2016. "Uncertainty and crude oil returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 92-100.
    13. Uma Murthy & Paul Anthony & Rubana Vighnesvaran, 2016. "Factors Affecting Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) Stock Market Return in Malaysia," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(1), pages 122-122, December.
    14. Guntur Anjana Raju & Sanjeeta Shirodkar & Shripad Ramchandra Marathe, 2021. "Nexus between Crude Oil, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Returns: An Empirical Evidence from Indian Context," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 170-175.
    15. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Nasreen, Samia & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Selmi, Refk, 2021. "Dynamic dependence of oil, clean energy and the role of technology companies: New evidence from copulas with regime switching," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    16. Nouf Bin Ayyaf Al-Mogren, 2020. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Saudi Arabia Stock Market: A Vector Error-Correction Model Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 310-317.
    17. Osaretin Kayode Omoregie & Sodik Adejonwo Olofin, 2020. "Corporate Performance in Nigeria: The Effect of Oil Price and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 170-179.
    18. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Audi, Mohamed & Ouled Ahmed Ben Ali, Raja, 2015. "Revising empirical linkages between direction of Canadian stock price index movement and Oil supply and demand shocks: Artificial neural network and support vector machines approaches," MPRA Paper 66029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Naurin, Abida & Qayyum, Abdul, 2016. "Impact of Oil Price and Its Volatility on Stock Market Index in Pakistan: Bivariate EGARCH Model," MPRA Paper 70636, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Wang, Xiangning & Huang, Qian & Zhang, Shuguang, 2023. "Effects of macroeconomic factors on stock prices for BRICS using the variational mode decomposition and quantile method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    21. Bhaskar Bagchi, 2016. "Volatility spillovers between exchange rates and Indian stock markets in the post-recession period: an APARCH approach," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 225-244.
    22. Mohammad Alsharif, 2020. "The Relationship Between the Returns and Volatility of Stock and Oil Markets in the Last Two Decades: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 1-8.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price shocks; stock market return; EGARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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