IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwedp/201227.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the power and weakness of rational expectations: Logical fallacies, periodic bubbles and business cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Gracia, Eduard

Abstract

A popular interpretation of the Rational Expectations/Efficient Markets hypothesis states that, if the hypothesis holds, then market valuations must follow a random walk. This postulate has frequently been criticized on the basis of empirical evidence. Yet the assertion itself incurs what we could call 'fallacy of probability diffusion symmetry': although market efficiency does indeed imply that the mean (i.e. expected) path must be a random walk, if the probability diffusion process is asymmetric then the observed path will most closely resemble not the mean but the median, which does not necessarily follow a random walk. To illustrate the implications, this paper develops an efficient markets model where the median path of Tobin's q ratio displays regular cycles of bubbles and crashes reflecting an agency problem between investors and producers. The model is tested against US market data, with results suggesting that such a regular cycle does indeed exist and is statistically significant. The aggregate production function in Gracia (Uncertainty and Capacity Constraints: Reconsidering the Aggregate Production Function, 2011) is then put forward to show how financial fluctuations can drive the business cycle by periodically impacting aggregate productivity and, as a consequence, GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Gracia, Eduard, 2012. "On the power and weakness of rational expectations: Logical fallacies, periodic bubbles and business cycles," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-27, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2012-27
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/59032/1/71783719X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles and Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 203-231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    5. W.A. Razzak, 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January.
    6. repec:dgr:rugsom:09002 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Alwyn Young, 1994. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," NBER Working Papers 4680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    2. Kopp, Andreas, 2000. "City size distribution and growth," HWWA Discussion Papers 97, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    3. Kopp, Andreas, 2000. "City Size Distribution and Growth," Discussion Paper Series 26303, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    4. Timmer, Marcel & Ark, Bart van, 2000. "Capital formation and productivity growth in South Korea and Taiwan: realising the catch-up potential in a world diminishing returns," CCSO Working Papers 200003, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    5. Jesper Stage, 2002. "Structural Shifts In Namibian Energy Use: An Input‐Output Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(6), pages 1103-1125, September.
    6. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "The Poverty of Nations: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 5414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jakob B. Madsen* & Md. Rabiul Islam, 2012. "The Anatomy of the Asian Take-off," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 4(2), pages 1-24, July.
    8. Olivier Bruno & Cuong Van & Benoît Masquin, 2009. "When does a developing country use new technologies?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 40(2), pages 275-300, August.
    9. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Brian Piper, 2014. "Factor-Specific Productivity," Working Papers 1401, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    11. Amer Bisat, 1997. "Growth, Investment, and Savings in the Arab Economies," IMF Working Papers 1997/085, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    13. Javed A. Ansari & Rafique A. Khan, 1998. "Technological Capability Building in South Korea: Some Lessons for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 825-845.
    14. Patricia Guiguet & Jean-Christophe Simon, 1999. "La gestion de l'emploi, obstacle à un nouveau régime de croissance en Asie du Sud-Est," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(158), pages 355-376.
    15. Patalinghug, Epictetus, 2001. "A Review of the Components of the Medium-Term National Action Agenda for Productivity (MNAAP) 2000-2004," Research Paper Series RPS 2001-02, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    16. Li, Hongyi & Wei, Xiangdong & Xie, Danyang, 2009. "Competitiveness of the Hong Kong economy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 573-586, September.
    17. Park, Jungsoo, 2012. "Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 114-127.
    18. Maurice Catin & Christophe Van Huffel, 2003. "Concentration urbaine et industrialisation," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 121(1), pages 87-107.
    19. Robin Grier, 2003. "Toothless Tigers? East Asian Economic Growth from 1960 to 1990," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 392-405, August.
    20. Chang Yongsung & Hornstein Andreas, 2015. "Transition dynamics in the neoclassical growth model: the case of South Korea," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 649-676, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational Expectations; efficient markets; financial bubbles; stock markets; booms and crashes; Tobin's q; business cycles; economic rents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.