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Zu den Auswirkungen des Brexit-Votums auf die deutsche Konjunktur: Ein Update

Author

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  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Potjagailo, Galina

Abstract

Die langfristigen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Brexit-Votums sind derzeit nur schwer ab-schätzbar. Kurzfristig dürfte das Votum die deutsche Konjunktur vor allem über den Außenhandelskanal und über das Investitionsverhalten der deutschen Unternehmen beeinflussen. In unserer Herbst-Prognose haben wir versucht, die Folgen des Brexit-Votums auf die deutsche Konjunktur abzuschätzen. Damals lagen jedoch kaum harte Indikatoren zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung im Vereinigten Königreich oder in Deutschland nach dem Brexit-Votum vor. Auf Basis der nun vorliegenden ersten Daten aktualisieren wir unsere Analyse.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Zu den Auswirkungen des Brexit-Votums auf die deutsche Konjunktur: Ein Update," Kiel Insight 2016.24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201624
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    2. Jannsen, Nils & Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Zu den Auswirkungen des Brexit-Votums auf die Ausfuhren und die Konjunktur in Deutschland," Kiel Insight 2016.23, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2017. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2017 - Deutsche Wirtschaft nähert sich der Hochkonjunktur [German Economy Autumn 2017 - German economy approaches boom period]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 35, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2017 - Aufschwung gewinnt an Breite [German Economy Spring 2017 - Expansion is set to broaden]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp, 2016. "Zur Revision der Prognose infolge der Brexit-Entscheidung in Großbritannien," Kiel Insight 2016.18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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