IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/icirwp/4823.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identifying scenarios for the own risk and solvency assessment of insurance companies

Author

Listed:
  • Aigner, Philipp

Abstract

Most insurers in the European Union determine their regulatory capital requirements based on the standard formula of Solvency II. However, there is evidence that the standard formula inaccurately reflects insurers' risk situation and may provide misleading steering incentives. In the second pillar, Solvency II requires insurers to perform a so-called 'Own Risk and Solvency Assessment' (ORSA). In their ORSA, insurers must establish their own risk measurement approaches, including those based on scenarios, in order to derive suitable risk assessments and address shortcomings of the standard formula. The idea of this paper is to identify scenarios in such a way that the standard formula in connection with the ORSA provides a reliable basis for risk management decisions. Using an innovative method for scenario identification, our approach allows for a simple but relatively precise assessment of marginal and even non-marginal portfolio changes. We numerically evaluate the proposed approach in the context of market risk employing an internal model from the academic literature and the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) calculation under Solvency II.

Suggested Citation

  • Aigner, Philipp, 2023. "Identifying scenarios for the own risk and solvency assessment of insurance companies," ICIR Working Paper Series 48/23, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:icirwp:4823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/271087/1/1844772233.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mittnik, Stefan, 2014. "VaR-implied tail-correlation matrices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 69-73.
    2. Buch, Arne & Dorfleitner, Gregor & Wimmer, Maximilian, 2011. "Risk capital allocation for RORAC optimization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3001-3009, November.
    3. Alexander Braun & Hato Schmeiser & Florian Schreiber, 2017. "Portfolio Optimization Under Solvency II: Implicit Constraints Imposed by the Market Risk Standard Formula," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(1), pages 177-207, March.
    4. Breuer, Thomas & Csiszár, Imre, 2013. "Systematic stress tests with entropic plausibility constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1552-1559.
    5. Bo Becker & Victoria Ivashina, 2015. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1863-1902, October.
    6. Gourieroux, C. & Laurent, J. P. & Scaillet, O., 2000. "Sensitivity analysis of Values at Risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 225-245, November.
    7. Hansjoerg Albrecher & Daniel Bauer & Paul Embrechts & Damir Filipović & Pablo Koch-Medina & Ralf Korn & Stéphane Loisel & Antoon Pelsser & Frank Schiller & Hato Schmeiser & Joël Wagner, 2017. "Asset-Liability Management for Long-Term Insurance Business," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-69, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2018.
    8. Eckert, Johanna & Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Michael, 2016. "Valuation and risk assessment of participating life insurance in the presence of credit risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 382-393.
    9. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    10. Paulusch, Joachim & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2022. "Sensitivity-implied tail-correlation matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Katharina Fischer & Sebastian Schlütter, 2015. "Optimal Investment Strategies for Insurance Companies when Capital Requirements are Imposed by a Standard Formula*," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 40(1), pages 15-40, March.
    12. Mohammad Rafiqul Islam & Nguyet Nguyen, 2020. "Comparison of Financial Models for Stock Price Prediction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, August.
    13. Dietmar Pfeifer & Doreen Strassburger, 2008. "Solvency II: stability problems with the SCR aggregation formula," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2008(4), pages 315-315.
    14. Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Michael, 2012. "Quantifying credit and market risk under Solvency II: Standard approach versus internal model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 649-666.
    15. Makam, Vaishno Devi & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis with χ2-divergences," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 372-383.
    16. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    17. Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938. "Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca38-1, January.
    18. Dirk Tasche, 2009. "Capital allocation for credit portfolios with kernel estimators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 581-595.
    19. Pesenti, Silvana M. & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2019. "Reverse sensitivity testing: What does it take to break the model?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 654-670.
    20. K. Fergusson & E. Platen, 2015. "Application Of Maximum Likelihood Estimation To Stochastic Short Rate Models," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, December.
    21. Joachim Paulusch, 2017. "The Solvency II Standard Formula, Linear Geometry, and Diversification," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-12, May.
    22. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    23. Chen, Tao & Goh, Jing Rong & Kamiya, Shinichi & Lou, Pingyi, 2019. "Marginal cost of risk-based capital and risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 130-145.
    24. Dirk Tasche, 2007. "Capital Allocation to Business Units and Sub-Portfolios: the Euler Principle," Papers 0708.2542, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2008.
    25. Dietmar Pfeifer & Doreen Strassburger, 2008. "Solvency II: stability problems with the SCR aggregation formula," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2008(1), pages 61-77.
    26. McNeil, Alexander J. & Smith, Andrew D., 2012. "Multivariate stress scenarios and solvency," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 299-308.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulusch, Joachim & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2021. "Sensitivity-implied tail-correlation matrices," ICIR Working Paper Series 33/19, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR), revised 2021.
    2. Aigner, Philipp & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2023. "Enhancing gradient capital allocation with orthogonal convexity scenarios," ICIR Working Paper Series 47/23, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    3. Paulusch, Joachim & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2022. "Sensitivity-implied tail-correlation matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Michael, 2012. "Quantifying credit and market risk under Solvency II: Standard approach versus internal model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 649-666.
    5. Alexander Braun & Hato Schmeiser & Florian Schreiber, 2017. "Portfolio Optimization Under Solvency II: Implicit Constraints Imposed by the Market Risk Standard Formula," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(1), pages 177-207, March.
    6. Schlütter, Sebastian & Fianu, Emmanuel Senyo & Gründl, Helmut, 2022. "Responsible investments in life insurers' optimal portfolios under solvency constraints," ICIR Working Paper Series 45/22, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    7. Davide Radi & Vu Phuong Hoang & Gabriele Torri & Hana Dvořáčková, 2021. "A revised version of the Cathcart & El-Jahel model and its application to CDS market," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 669-705, December.
    8. Eckert, Johanna & Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Michael, 2016. "Valuation and risk assessment of participating life insurance in the presence of credit risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 382-393.
    9. João Nunes, 2011. "American options and callable bonds under stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-332, October.
    10. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
    11. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    12. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    13. Houweling, Patrick & Hoek, Jaap & Kleibergen, Frank, 2001. "The joint estimation of term structures and credit spreads," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 297-323, July.
    14. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    15. Hubner, Georges, 2001. "The analytic pricing of asymmetric defaultable swaps," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 295-316, February.
    16. Cheikh Mbaye & Frédéric Vrins, 2022. "Affine term structure models: A time‐change approach with perfect fit to market curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 678-724, April.
    17. Pennacchi, George G., 2005. "Risk-based capital standards, deposit insurance, and procyclicality," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 432-465, October.
    18. Shu-Ling Chiang & Ming-Shann Tsai, 2010. "Pricing a defaultable bond with a stochastic recovery rate," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 49-58.
    19. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    20. Laurent, Jean-Paul & Sestier, Michael & Thomas, Stéphane, 2016. "Trading book and credit risk: How fundamental is the Basel review?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 211-223.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk measurement; Enterprise Risk Management; Own Risk and Solvency Assessment; Solvency II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:icirwp:4823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icffmde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.