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Tourism Boom, Housing Doom: Excessive Tourism And International Emigration

Author

Listed:
  • Mikulić, Josip
  • Vitezić, Vanja
  • Srhoj, Stjepan
  • Kuliš, Zvonimir

Abstract

Existing literature has largely overlooked the relationship between excessive tourism growth and international emigration. This study addresses this gap by analyzing Croatia, a country that experienced a significant population decline-losing 10% of its inhabitants between the 2011 and 2021 censuses-amid rapid and highly seasonal tourism growth. Coastal Croatia, in the later stage of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC), contrasts with Continental Croatia, in its early stage. We first establish a positive association between rising housing prices and emigration across both regions. More critically, we demonstrate that tourism activity correlates with increased emigration in areas experiencing excessive tourism (late TALC stage), while it is negatively associated with emigration in regions with lower tourism levels (early TALC stage). Our findings shed light on the overlooked adverse effects of tourism growth in the later stages of the TALC, emphasizing the need for nuanced approaches to tourism development and public policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikulić, Josip & Vitezić, Vanja & Srhoj, Stjepan & Kuliš, Zvonimir, 2024. "Tourism Boom, Housing Doom: Excessive Tourism And International Emigration," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1501, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1501
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kunovac, Davor & Zilic, Ivan, 2022. "The effect of housing loan subsidies on affordability: Evidence from Croatia," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Mikulić, Josip & Vizek, Maruška & Stojčić, Nebojša & Payne, James E. & Čeh Časni, Anita & Barbić, Tajana, 2021. "The effect of tourism activity on housing affordability," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Mihalic, Tanja, 2020. "Conceptualising overtourism: A sustainability approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overtourism; housing prices; emigration; brain drain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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