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The Brazilian Rise and the Elusive South American Balance

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  • Schenoni, Luis Leandro

Abstract

Within the last 50 years, the Brazilian share of South American power has increased from one-third to one-half of the overall material capabilities in the region. Such a significant change in the regional power structure cannot have gone unnoticed by Brazil's neighbors. The article addresses the main question related to South American unipolarity (1985-2014): Why have most countries in the region not implemented any consistent balancing or bandwagoning strategies vis-à-vis Brazil? Drawing on neoclassical realism, the article proposes that certain domestic variables - government instability, limited party-system institutionalization, and powerful presidents - have diverted the attention of political elites and foreign policy executives from the challenges generated by a rising Brazil. Crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis is used to test this hypothesis and other alternative explanations for the regional imbalance.

Suggested Citation

  • Schenoni, Luis Leandro, 2015. "The Brazilian Rise and the Elusive South American Balance," GIGA Working Papers 269, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gigawp:269
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abb, Pascal, 2013. "What Drives Interstate Balancing? Estimations of Domestic and Systemic Factors," GIGA Working Papers 238, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    2. Shugart,Matthew Soberg & Carey,John M., 1992. "Presidents and Assemblies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521429900, October.
    3. Shugart,Matthew Soberg & Carey,John M., 1992. "Presidents and Assemblies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521419628, October.
    4. Brooks, Stephen G., 1997. "Dueling Realisms," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 445-477, July.
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    1. Schenoni, Luis Leandro, 2016. "Regional Power Transitions: Lessons from the Southern Cone," GIGA Working Papers 293, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

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