IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/gdec05/3500.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How to prioritise policies for poverty reduction: Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Klump, Rainer
  • Prüfer, Patricia

Abstract

The UN Millennium Development Goals have recognized poverty reduction as the main goal of global development policy. A comprehensive framework to evaluate the effectiveness of single policy measures and policy packages with respect to poverty reduction is still lacking, though. Policy evaluation is exposed to manifold uncertainties given the dependency of the preferred outcomes on a chosen policy, available information, and policy makers' preferences. We show that Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is most valuable in this context as it addresses the parameter and model uncertainty inherent in development policies. Using data for the 61 Vietnamese provinces we are able to ascertain the most important determinants of poverty from a large number of potential explanatory variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Klump, Rainer & Prüfer, Patricia, 2005. "How to prioritise policies for poverty reduction: Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 27, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec05:3500
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19820/1/Pruefer.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    2. Ravallion, Martin, 1997. "Can high-inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 51-57, September.
    3. Arsenio M Balisacan & Ernesto M Pernia & Gemma Esther B Estrada, 2003. "Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Viet Nam," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Ernesto M Pernia & Anil B Deolalikar (ed.), Poverty, Growth, and Institutions in Developing Asia, chapter 9, pages 273-296, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. World Bank, 2004. "Vietnam Development Report 2005 : Governance," World Bank Publications - Reports 15650, The World Bank Group.
    5. Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Looking Beyond Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1803-1815, November.
    6. Fritzen, Scott, 2002. "Growth, inequality and the future of poverty reduction in Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 635-657.
    7. World Bank, 2003. "Vietnam Development Report 2004 : Poverty," World Bank Publications - Reports 14651, The World Bank Group.
    8. Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "Pro-poor growth : A primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3242, The World Bank.
    9. Günther Rehme, 2002. "(Re-)Distribution of Personal Incomes, Education and Economic Performance across Countries," LIS Working papers 299, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    10. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    11. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    12. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 317-335, December.
    13. Gundlach, Erich & Navarro de Pablo, José & Weisert, Natascha, 2004. "Education is good for the poor: a note on Dollar and Kraay," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3199, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2003. "Measuring pro-poor growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 93-99, January.
    15. Erich Gundlach & Jose Navarro de Pablo & Natascha Weisert, 2001. "Education Is Good for the Poor: a Note on Dollar and Kraay (2001)," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-137, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Mr. Lennart Erickson & Mr. Dietrich Vollrath, 2004. "Dimensions of Land Inequality and Economic Development," IMF Working Papers 2004/158, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    18. Theo S Eicher & Cecilia Garcia Penalosa, "undated". "Inequality and Growth," Working Papers 0083, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    19. Martin Ravallion & Dominique Van De Walle, 2004. "Breaking up the collective farms," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(2), pages 201-236, June.
    20. Hans P. Binswanger & Klaus Deininger, 1997. "Explaining Agricultural and Agrarian Policies in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 1958-2005, December.
    21. Van de Walle, Dominique, 2002. "The static and dynamic incidence of Vietnam's public safety net," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2791, The World Bank.
    22. Deininger, Klaus & Olinto, Pedro, 2000. "Asset distribution, inequality, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2375, The World Bank.
    23. Stephan Klasen, 2003. "In Search of The Holy Grail: How to Achieve Pro-Poor Growth ?," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 096, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    24. Francois Bourguignon, 2004. "The Poverty-growth-inequality triangle," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 125, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klump, R. & Prüfer, P., 2006. "Prioritizing Policies for Pro-Poor Growth : Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam," Other publications TiSEM dc14add6-f581-4eea-92dd-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Martin Ravallion, 2012. "Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 504-523, February.
    3. Humberto López & Luis Servén, 2015. "Too Poor to Grow," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo J. Caballero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (ed.),Economic Policies in Emerging-Market Economies Festschrift in Honor of Vittorio Corbo, edition 1, volume 21, chapter 13, pages 309-350, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Mager, Gregor & Faße, Anja, 2021. "The Contribution of Smallholders´ Livelihood Activities on Income Inequality and Poverty: Case Study from Rural Tanzania," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315405, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. repec:cte:whrepe:wh054104 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Vincenzo Lombardo, 2011. "Growth and Inequality Effects on Poverty Reduction in Italy," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 241-280.
    7. Khalid Zaman & Sadaf Shamsuddin, 2018. "Linear and Non-linear Relationships Between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty in a Panel of Latin America and the Caribbean Countries: A New Evidence of Pro-poor Growth," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 595-619, April.
    8. Francisco J. Beltran Tapia & Julio Martinez-Galarrage, 2015. "Inequality and poverty in a developing economy: Evidence from regional data (Spain, 1860-1930)," Working Papers 0078, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    9. Sami Bibi, 2006. "Growth with Equity is Better for the Poor," Cahiers de recherche 0640, CIRPEE.
    10. Alberto Javier Iniguez-Montiel & Takashi Kurosaki, 2018. "Growth, inequality and poverty dynamics in Mexico," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Nancy Birdsall, 2008. "Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 48, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Desire Avom & Fabrizio Carmignani & Abdour Chowdhury, "undated". "Four Scenarios of Poverty Reduction and the Role of Economic Policy," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3109, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. Klasen, Stephan & Reimers, Malte, 2017. "Looking at Pro-Poor Growth from an Agricultural Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 147-168.
    14. Ferreira , Francisco H. G., 2010. "Distributions in motion: economic growth, inequality, and poverty dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5424, The World Bank.
    15. Michael Grimm & Isabel Günther, 2007. "Growth and Poverty in Burkina Faso: A Reassessment of the Paradox," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(1), pages 70-101, January.
    16. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 2017. "Growth, inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 306-336.
    17. Thorat, Sukhadeo, 2011. "Growth, Inequality and Poverty Linkages during 1983-2005: Implications for Socially Inclusive Growth," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(1), pages 1-32.
    18. Jean-Yves Duclos & Paul Makdissi & Abdelkrim Araar, 2009. "Pro-Poor Tax reforms, with an Application to Mexico," Working Papers 0907E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    19. Grabiella Berloffa & Maria Luigia Segnana, 2004. "Trade, inequality and pro-poor growth: Two perspectives, one message?," Department of Economics Working Papers 0408, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    20. Aadil Hameed Shah & Atta Ullah Khan & Liurong Pan & Asad Amin & Abbas Ali Chandio, 2022. "Reflections of Pro-Poor Growth across Agro-Climatic Zones for Farming and Non-Farming Communities: Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-16, May.
    21. Klasen, Stephan, 2008. "Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction: Measurement Issues using Income and Non-Income Indicators," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 420-445, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty determinants; Vietnam; model uncertainty; Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec05:3500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfselea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.